Prediction markets show a sharp decrease in Donald Trump’s odds of winning the election as Kamala Harris gains significant ground. With only two days left until Election Day, Harris leads in various prediction platforms and polling data, suggesting a potential turning point in voter sentiment.
Recent developments in prediction markets indicate a significant shift away from Donald Trump as the campaign approaches its final days. Just over a week ago, Trump appeared to be a strong frontrunner, but now, with two days left until Election Day, Kamala Harris has gained momentum. On PredictIt, Harris’s winning contract is priced at 54 cents, a notable increase from 46 cents earlier in the week, while Trump’s contract has decreased to 51 cents from a previous high of 60 cents. According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of securing the election have plummeted to 51% as of Sunday, reflecting a stark decline from a high of approximately 64.6% just a few days prior. Interactive Brokers’ IBKR Forecast Trader corroborates this trend, showing Trump’s odds at 54%, down from 68%, with Harris making a considerable leap to 54% before settling at 48% later the same day. The dramatic rise in Harris’s odds on IBKR, which was backed by approximately $40 million in trading volume, prompted a statement from Thomas Peterffy, the platform’s chairman. He attributed this surge to recent news events rather than potential market manipulation. Data scientist Thomas Miller highlighted that a pivotal moment occurred during a Trump rally, where a controversial comment by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe regarding Puerto Rico sparked backlash and could have adversely affected Trump’s standing. Further indications of an electoral shift come from a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, which shows Harris leading Trump by three points among likely voters. This is a reversal from September, when Trump held a slight edge, suggesting an increase in Harris’s support in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena College poll indicates that undecided voters appear to be favoring Harris as Election Day approaches. Despite these shifts, Trump’s overall odds remain close, with 538’s analysis giving him a 53% likelihood of victory compared to Harris’s 47%. José Torres from Interactive Brokers cautioned that the forecasting model still slightly favors a Republican sweep across the White House and Congress.
The article discusses the current state of prediction markets as they relate to the upcoming election, particularly focusing on the shifts in odds and prices for candidates during the final stretch of the campaign. It highlights the dynamic nature of voter sentiment and how recent events and polling have influenced the market’s outlook on both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The statement from an influential figure at Interactive Brokers adds context to the reliability and interpretation of these prediction markets, while insights from data scientists and polls illustrate the changing electoral landscape.
In summary, the prediction markets indicate a significant turn in favor of Kamala Harris as Election Day approaches, with notable declines in Donald Trump’s odds following recent controversial public appearances. Polling data supports the notion of shifting momentum, with Harris appearing to gain ground in critical battleground states. While Trump’s chances still remain competitive, the current trends suggest the election could yield unexpected outcomes.
Original Source: fortune.com
