A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical depression within days, while Subtropical Storm Patty is monitored in the North Atlantic. Heavy rainfall is expected in the Caribbean, with potential flooding threats, particularly to areas west of Puerto Rico. Forecasts indicate uncertainty regarding the future path of these systems as the Atlantic hurricane season comes to a close.
A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is projected to evolve into a tropical depression within the next few days, as reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Currently characterized by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, this system is anticipated to develop as it progresses towards the central and western Caribbean this weekend. As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close on November 30, the NHC has already identified a subtropical storm named Patty in the northern Atlantic, and the southwestern Caribbean system could potentially be named Rafael should it strengthen to tropical storm intensity. Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist with FOX Weather, stated, “There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday.” He noted that the increase in tropical moisture associated with the system may lead to flooding threats on Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday and could extend to South Florida midweek. However, he cautioned that forecasts become increasingly uncertain once the system enters the Gulf of Mexico due to weak steering currents, which could lead to erratic movement. If the disturbance remains relatively weak, a westward drift toward the Mexican coast appears more likely. Conversely, if it intensifies, movement towards any part of the U.S. Gulf Coast could occur, albeit with potential interference from dry air in the Gulf and unfavorable upper-level winds that could inhibit significant development. Norcross remarked, “Even if possible-Rafael is able to strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant storm at the coast looks unlikely, based on what we know now.” Moreover, another area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea is being monitored, with minimal chance of development over the coming days. Heavy rainfall is expected in the northeastern Caribbean islands due to this system, although it is projected to merge with the developing disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean next week. In the North Atlantic, Subtropical Storm Patty, having sustained winds of 50 mph, is also under observation. It is expected to weaken over the weekend and may become a post-tropical cyclone.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 each year, during which various systems form over the ocean. These systems can develop into tropical depressions or storms, posing potential threats to coastal regions. The NHC closely monitors weather patterns to anticipate developments and issue warnings. In the incidents discussed, a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is under focus due to its likelihood of transformation into a tropical depression, impacting areas such as Puerto Rico and the Gulf Coast. Additionally, a subtropical storm named Patty is located in the North Atlantic, albeit it is expected to weaken in the near future. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for preparedness and safety in affected regions.
In summary, a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to potentially evolve into a tropical depression within days, while another monitoring area may yield minimal effects. The situation remains fluid, with forecasts indicating variable paths and intensities for potential storms. The NHC will continue to provide updates as developments occur in this busy final month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Original Source: www.fox13news.com
