Tensions in the Horn of Africa are rising as Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea discuss a collective security alliance against Ethiopia. The summit in Asmara on October 10, 2024, is a response to Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland, which raises concerns regarding the stability of the region amidst ongoing civil wars in Ethiopia and Sudan. This nascent alliance may exacerbate conflicts and lead to proxy battles echoing Cold War dynamics, stressing the need for global attention to the situation in the Horn of Africa.
Tensions are escalating in the Horn of Africa as Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea convene to explore a potential alliance aimed at countering Ethiopia. On October 10, 2024, leaders from these three nations gathered in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, to discuss the formation of a collective security arrangement and the possibility of imposing economic sanctions against Ethiopia. This unprecedented diplomatic collaboration raises alarms regarding the stability of a region that has already endured significant turmoil. Since August 2024, Egypt has established military cooperation and intelligence-sharing agreements with Somalia, with a similar security pact anticipated with Eritrea. This tripartite assembly, involving Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, signals a potential shift in geopolitical dynamics within the Horn of Africa. The region is still reeling from the effects of a brutal civil war in Ethiopia, which has resulted in over 600,000 fatalities, while unrest in Sudan has led to 150,000 deaths and the displacement of 10 million individuals. A pivotal factor contributing to this rising tension is Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region that declared independence from Somalia in 1991, granting Ethiopia maritime access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty. The deal has sparked outrage from Somalia, considering it a breach of its territorial integrity, with Egypt and Eritrea also expressing significant disapproval. Additionally, Egypt perceives the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam—a key water source for its populace—as an existential threat, which underscores its motivation to encircle Ethiopia. The potential establishment of an Ethiopian naval base could further exacerbate regional stability concerns, particularly in the eyes of Eritrea, a long-time adversary of Ethiopia. It is posited that this emerging alliance might further destabilize Somalia, where the militant group Al Shabab has regained strength and is reportedly collaborating with Houthi militants. With the U.S. arms embargo complicating matters, Al Shabab is increasingly relying on connections with Iran for advanced weaponry, thus undermining Somalia’s efforts to govern effectively. Moreover, Eritrea remains isolated while maintaining sanctions. The likelihood of upheaval is amplified if Ethiopia decides to withdraw from the Algiers Agreement that has thus far prevented direct conflict between Eritrea and itself, particularly concerning the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—an active entity in Ethiopia’s internal conflict. While an immediate escalation into war seems unlikely, the specter of proxy conflicts reminiscent of the Cold War looms large, threatening trade routes and military alliances that could have wider implications on international stability. As discussions around this alliance continue, it may deter Ethiopia from its agreement with Somaliland or provoke prolonged conflict fostering regional rivalries. Ethiopia is currently adopting a cautious stance, delaying the implementation of its arrangement with Somaliland amidst emerging news of potential discussions between Ethiopian and Somaliland leadership. The Horn of Africa is on the precipice of conflict that could spiral into one of the deadliest confrontations in recent history. The international community must heed these developments to mitigate risks stemming from negligence; ignoring the situation could prove perilous on a global scale.
The Horn of Africa has historically been a region fraught with tension, influenced by complex interrelations among its nations. The ongoing civil unrest in Ethiopia, initiating in late 2020, has exacerbated diplomatic relations, creating a backdrop for potential alliances and conflicts. The region is significant not only for its strategic maritime routes but also for its ethnic and political diversities which serve as both a source of rich cultures and persistent conflict. The recent developments concerning Somaliland and Ethiopia add an additional layer of complexity, as they touch upon issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity. As countries maneuver around the evolving political landscape, the implications of their alliances may have far-reaching consequences for peace and stability in the area.
In conclusion, the formation of a tripartite alliance among Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. This coalition, viewed as a countermeasure to Ethiopia’s increasing regional influence and its recent dealings with Somaliland, could potentially heighten existing tensions and spur proxy conflicts reminiscent of the Cold War. As diplomatic efforts unfold, the outcomes will likely have profound implications not only for the nations involved but for regional stability and international relations more broadly. The Horn of Africa stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate global attention to prevent a burgeoning crisis from escalating into widespread conflict.
Original Source: www.orfonline.org
