Ethiopia and Eritrea may soon face conflict due to instability in Tigray, with historical tensions resurfacing after a fragile peace agreement. The possibility of military cooperation and rival factions heightens fears of war, risking humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia and Eritrea stand on the brink of potential conflict, according to warnings from Northern Ethiopian officials and regional experts. This threat jeopardizes a historic reconciliation effort, for which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, and could result in a significant humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.
Concerns of an impending war arise from renewed instability in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which previously faced a devastating civil war from 2020 to 2022, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. Eritrean forces had intervened during the conflict to support Ethiopia’s federal army against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the leading political faction in Tigray.
Despite a peace agreement from November 2022 aimed at ending hostilities, it further strained relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as Eritrea was excluded from the talks. Following the conflict, the TPLF, which governs Tigray, has since fractured, and a dissident faction recently captured the town of Adigrat, raising tensions.
As accusations fly between rival factions regarding collaborations with Eritrea, analysts warn that this rivalry could plunge Ethiopia and Eritrea into direct conflict. Additionally, Eritrea has recently mobilized its military, and Ethiopia has positioned troops near the Eritrean border, escalating tensions.
Historically, Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a brutal struggle. Relations oscillated between hostility and cooperation until diplomatic ties were restored in 2018, following a significant agreement. However, relations soured again with the end of the Tigray war and the resulting peace agreement, which left Eritrea feeling undermined and threatened.
Eritrean officials expressed concern over Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy’s assertions regarding Ethiopia’s need for sea access. Furthermore, ceased flights between the two nations and Eritrea’s security pact with Egypt and Somalia highlights the deterioration of relations, adding layers of complexity to the geopolitical landscape of the region.
The escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea reflect a fragile post-war landscape in the Horn of Africa. With historical grievances and recent political developments contributing to fears of renewed conflict, the need for diplomacy and conflict resolution is paramount. A renewed military confrontation would not only disrupt regional stability but also threaten the humanitarian situation in Tigray and beyond.
Original Source: ntvkenya.co.ke
