In February 2025, severe flooding in Gaborone and southern Africa led to 31 deaths and displacements of over 5,000 individuals. This event, exacerbated by climate change and urbanization, revealed significant gaps in local infrastructure. Research indicated that human-induced climate change likely intensified rainfall, highlighting the need for enhanced disaster preparedness and urban planning.
In mid-February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall, resulting in at least 31 fatalities, including six children in Gaborone. Over 5,000 individuals were displaced, as flooding disrupted major ports, led to the temporary closure of schools, and caused significant traffic issues. Emergency services faced challenges in reaching stranded residents as regions became isolated amid the chaos.
To understand the impacts of climate change on the flooding event, an international team of scientists examined the rainfall data from February 16 to 20, 2025. They focused on analyzing the 5-day maximum rainfall, a crucial metric for assessing the severity of the flooding in urbanized areas such as Gaborone, where drainage systems are often overwhelmed during heavy rains.
The findings revealed that Gaborone frequently encounters flooding due to high-intensity rainfall, a challenge exacerbated by rapid urbanization and insufficient drainage infrastructure. Even with a global temperature increase of 1.3 °C, the extreme rainfall observed in February is rare, expected once every 10 to 200 years.
Data analysis indicates that such intense rainfall would have been less likely in a cooler climate, while the trend suggests a 60% increase in intensity correlating with human-induced climate change. Despite varying climate model results, which range from increased rainfall frequency to no change, some models indicate a potential rise in rainfall intensity under projected future warming levels.
The conclusion drawn from this research emphasizes that while human-induced climate change likely heightened rainfall intensity and flooding events, quantifying the exact impact remains challenging. Historical patterns indicate that urban infrastructure inadequately supports extreme weather events, leading to significant disruptions in services like healthcare.
Efforts are ongoing to enhance flood resilience through improved urban planning, infrastructure upgrades, effective zoning, and comprehensive disaster preparedness. By integrating multi-hazard assessments, cities can increase their resilience to future extreme weather events and ensure better protection for their populations.
In summary, the severe flooding in Gaborone and surrounding areas during February 2025 can be attributed to a combination of heavy rainfall and inadequate urban infrastructure. Human-induced climate change is likely contributing to increased rainfall intensity, exacerbating the existing vulnerabilities in rapidly urbanizing regions. Ongoing efforts to improve resilience through better planning and infrastructure are crucial for mitigating future risks associated with extreme weather events.
Original Source: www.preventionweb.net
