Officials in Tigray, Ethiopia, have cautioned that rising tensions with Eritrea could lead to war. A potential conflict threatens to undermine the peace established in recent years and inflict a new humanitarian disaster on the Horn of Africa, especially as the region deals with multiple crises. Military readiness has increased on both sides amidst fears of renewed conflict brought on by internal divisions within Tigray.
Ethiopia and Eritrea are reportedly on the verge of war, as warned by officials from the Tigray region of Ethiopia. This escalation could result in a significant humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa, jeopardizing the fragile peace established through Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s efforts, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Analysts have suggested that a military conflict between these nations could also involve other regional powers, exacerbating the humanitarian situation amid existing crises in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, an official from Tigray’s interim administration, expressed grave concerns, stating that hostilities could ignite “at any moment”. The root of escalating tensions emanates from the recent division within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), culminating in a civil war from 2020 to 2022 that resulted in extensive casualties. The now-split factions include one recognized by the Ethiopian government and another opposing it, with the latter reportedly attempting to ally with Eritrea.
Recent developments saw the dissident faction seizing the northern town of Adigrat, prompting calls for government support from Tigray’s interim administration leader, Getachew Reda. He voiced concerns over the ramifications of potential conflict, notably the suffering it could impose on the Tigray populace, who may not support renewed warfare.
Despite Eritrea’s Minister dismissing the warnings from Tsadkan as “war-mongering psychosis,” recent military mobilizations and troop movements toward the border indicate escalating military preparedness on both sides. Former U.S. and EU diplomats, Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, noted in a recent essay that the political and security landscape in Tigray resembles “dry tinder waiting for a match.”
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s tumultuous relationship is marked by Ethiopia’s historical conflict leading to Eritrean independence in 1993 and a subsequent border war from 1998 to 2000. Though a ceasefire was established in 2018, the relationship has become increasingly strained due to unaddressed disputes, such as Ethiopia’s claims to access the Red Sea, and a recent security pact between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia, perceived as a countermeasure to Ethiopia’s aspirations.
Experts warn that if tensions continue to escalate and military confrontation ensues, the consequences will likely extend far beyond both nations, affecting the entire region’s stability.
In summary, the warning from Tigray officials underscores a dire situation that could lead Ethiopia and Eritrea towards conflict, which would have severe humanitarian implications. The dynamics of internal divisions within Tigray, military mobilizations, and historical grievances continue to compound tensions. The potential for war looms large as regional stability hangs in the balance amid ongoing crises in surrounding countries. The situation remains precarious and demands international attention and diplomatic intervention to prevent escalation.
Original Source: www.thestar.com.my
