South Sudan faces increased insecurity and conflict, primarily between President Salva Kiir’s forces and Vice President Riek Machar’s supporters. The 2018 peace agreement that currently regulates power-sharing and attempts to stabilize the region is threatened by recent arrests, ethnic tensions, and economic instability. Experts warn of possible large-scale violence, particularly in key cities like Malakal, as the humanitarian situation deteriorates and elections are indefinitely postponed.
In recent weeks, South Sudan has experienced heightened insecurity marked by renewed combat in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal regions. The clashes predominantly feature forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The conflict intensifies as several of Machar’s allies have been arrested, raising risks of further destabilization of the fragile peace established by the 2018 power-sharing agreement, which effectively concluded a devastating civil war.
The South Sudanese government has accused Machar and his supporters of colluding with the White Army, a militia largely composed of the Nuer ethnic group. This allegation followed a violent assault on a military base in Nasir, resulting in the deaths of several military personnel during a United Nations rescue attempt. The increasing tensions and military actions threaten the precarious peace framework of the 2018 agreement, which had maintained a tenuous stability since its inception.
Protests erupted in February over President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle, dismissing senior officials, including two Vice Presidents. This action, perceived as undermining the 2018 agreement, further inflamed ethnic tensions, particularly as the appointments favored Kiir’s Dinka ethnic group. Historical communal violence in the region has added to the challenges of governance, particularly amid the backdrop of upcoming elections.
On March 11, Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to support Kiir’s government, aiming to stabilize the capital amid fears of escalating violence. While this intervention may secure short-term stability in Juba, it risks exacerbating tensions in western South Sudan by appearing to favor the ruling government against opposition groups.
Economic pressures from neighboring Sudan, including a civil conflict affecting oil export infrastructure, have compounded South Sudan’s instability. A significant influx of Sudanese refugees and the loss of oil revenues have destabilized the economy. The rising cost of goods, notably food, raises public discontent, threatening Kiir’s patronage networks essential for regime survival.
The conflict dynamics are heavily influenced by ethnic identities, particularly as Kiir has centralized oil revenues, generating tensions between the Dinka and Nuer groups. This ethnic patronage exacerbates existing violence and hinders any significant progress towards peace. Recurring episodes of targeted killings, sexual violence, and displacement challenge the effectiveness of the power-sharing agreement, which has largely redistributed power among elites without addressing root causes of conflict.
Experts predict violence may escalate further, particularly in strategic cities like Malakal. Fighting there could provoke communal violence, potentially triggering widespread conflict throughout South Sudan. Concurrently, public dissatisfaction with the government and humanitarian inadequacies highlights a critical need for genuine reform, especially given that the country has not conducted democratic elections since its independence, with recent elections postponed multiple times.
In summary, South Sudan is on the verge of an all-out war due to escalating conflicts between ethnic factions and the central government’s inability to maintain order. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement faces severe threats from recent military actions and political maneuvers. As economic and humanitarian crises deepen, the specter of renewed ethnic violence looms large, potentially destabilizing the region further. Without substantive reforms and effective dialogue, the hope for lasting peace remains elusive.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
