The article warns of an impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, highlighting the fragile political landscape in Tigray following the 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement. With internal divisions within Tigray and external pressures from regional powers, the risk of war looms large, necessitating urgent diplomatic intervention to avert widespread instability across the Horn of Africa.
In late 2022, a cessation of hostilities agreement concluded one of the most devastating conflicts of the 21st century between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition. This war, characterized by vast land armies and advanced weaponry, resulted in an estimated death toll exceeding 600,000. As the two-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement approaches, the political and security situation in the Tigray region remains precarious and requires urgent attention from regional and international powers.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once dominant in Ethiopian politics, faces internal rivalries exacerbated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise in 2018. This power struggle among Tigrayan factions finds those loyal to TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and interim president Getachew Reda at odds, threatening stability. Recent actions, including the removal of military commanders by Getachew, signal a growing crisis within the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) that could lead to a coup or violence against the interim administration.
The broader regional instability intensifies the risk of renewed warfare between Ethiopia and Eritrea, potentially igniting conflicts across the Red Sea area. Rivalries among Gulf states complicate matters, as nations like Saudi Arabia could perceive Ethiopia’s military actions along the coast as destabilizing to their interests.
Although the EPLF and the TPLF once cooperated against the Derg dictatorship, relations soured due to territorial disputes and leadership changes. The Pretoria Agreement mandated Eritrea’s military withdrawal, yet accusations from Ethiopia of Eritrean interference have persisted. Ethiopia views access to the Red Sea as a crucial national interest while Eritrean leadership remains wary of any moves that could signify a loss of autonomy.
Continued military mobilization along the Tigrayan border raises alarming prospects for conflict. The region is rife with other conflicts, including civil strife in Sudan and sporadic violence in South Sudan and Somalia, leading to fears that any war in Tigray will draw in these neighboring states and their allies.
The current geopolitical landscape threatens to undermine established norms regarding state sovereignty and could provoke further regional chaos. The potential for Ethiopia and Eritrea’s conflict to destabilize northeast Africa is significant, and quick diplomatic intervention is crucial to avoid unchecked escalations.
An urgent call for multilateral engagement is imperative to prevent further deterioration. Western and Middle Eastern states, in collaboration with the African Union, need to stabilize the situation through diplomacy. Failure to act may encourage aggression, emboldening those intent on territorial expansion and further destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
The potential for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea presents a grave threat to regional stability. The internal strife within Tigray, compounded by old rivalries and geopolitical complexities, underscores the urgent need for strategic diplomatic intervention. Without decisive action from influential global players, the prospects of widespread violence could not only engulf Ethiopia and Eritrea but also impact the broader Red Sea region and beyond.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
