The M23 militia, backed by Rwanda, has captured key cities in eastern DRC, aiming to reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. Amidst humanitarian crises and rising tensions, neighboring countries like Burundi and Uganda are also drawn into the conflict. President Tshisekedi faces a loss of control as internal and external pressures mount, echoing past conflicts in the DRC. International intervention remains crucial yet increasingly urgent.
In late January and early February, the M23 militia, backed by Rwanda, seized control of Goma and Bukavu, two pivotal cities in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This territorial acquisition, an area comparable to Connecticut, signifies M23’s ambition to reshape the geopolitical landscape of Africa’s Great Lakes region. The group is establishing local governance to further its strategic aims, closely aligned with Rwanda’s interests.
The M23 movement initially arose in 2012 but was quelled by international intervention in 2013. Ostensibly, M23 claims to defend the Rwandophone and Tutsi minorities in eastern Congo; however, it pursues a broader goal of regime change in Kinshasa. The recent formation of the Alliance du Fleuve Congo (AFC) reflects this agenda, presenting a political wing for M23 that seeks broader political influence.
M23 reemerged in November 2021 due to the Congolese government’s failure to fulfill commitments regarding the militia’s veterans. Additionally, Rwanda’s escalating concerns about the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), as well as its economic interests in the region’s gold resources, have fueled M23’s resurgence. This strategic push has seen Rwanda activating M23 to counter perceived threats and maintain its influence over eastern DRC.
The humanitarian cost of M23’s advance is significant, with three million individuals displaced and thousands reported killed over the last 14 months. Public health crises are emerging alongside heightened risks of large-scale regional conflict, creating dire conditions for the affected populations.
Burundi is increasingly alarmed by potential conflict with Rwanda. Heightened tensions have escalated, with mutual accusations of supporting insurgences escalating rhetoric. The Burundian government, led by President Évariste Ndayishimiye, has called for preparedness against Rwanda, framing it as a regional threat.
Uganda mirrors Rwanda’s complex interests in eastern DRC, engaging in both cooperative and competitive actions there. While reports indicate Uganda’s support for M23 by facilitating recruitment and military resources, the Ugandan army has also bolstered its presence, pursuing its own territorial ambitions.
President Felix Tshisekedi struggles to assert control over eastern DRC, with visible declines in military morale. A significant withdrawal of Burundian forces has further weakened his position, prompting a critical situation in the mineral-rich Katanga region, where political discontent towards Tshisekedi’s leadership is mounting.
The current geopolitical scenario draws alarming parallels to the early days of the Second Congolese War, suggesting a rising risk of broader conflict in the region. Internal ethnic and political tensions are surging, likened to a cycle of violence ignited by M23’s resurgence.
International pressure was crucial in curtailing M23’s activities in 2013, with the U.S. playing a significant role. Currently, Tshisekedi’s appeals for foreign intervention have met with limited success, despite ambitious plans to trade mineral wealth for military assistance and a desire to shift from Chinese influence towards Western alliances.
The M23 militia’s resurgence in eastern DRC underscores a complex interplay of regional interests involving Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda. This turbulence not only threatens local stability but also risks escalating into a larger conflict that parallels past wars in the region. International pressure remains pivotal in addressing these emerging crises; however, the window for effective intervention is rapidly closing as the dynamics evolve.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
