Argentine analysts predict year-end inflation at 23.3% for 2025, with economic growth forecast raised to 4.8%. Recent trends show inflation decreasing after peaking near 300%. The government, led by President Javier Milei, is focused on managing inflation through austerity measures while seeking new IMF support.
According to the central bank’s market expectations survey released on Monday, Argentine analysts maintained their inflation forecast for the year at 23.3%, marking an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Additionally, the analysts raised their economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The survey, conducted from February 26 to 28, included responses from 39 participants, such as consultancies, research centers, and financial entities.
The INDEC statistics agency is set to release February’s inflation figures on Friday, followed by economic growth data for the last quarter of 2024 on March 19. In late January, the central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate from 32% to 29%, attributing this decision to a decline in inflation rates. January’s monthly inflation was reported at 2.2%, the lowest since mid-2020.
Earlier in the year, Argentina experienced near 300% inflation; however, the rate has decreased to the double digits, standing at approximately 85% as of January. Key increases were observed in hospitality services, as well as housing and utility costs. Analysts predict that the inflation trend will either sustain or slightly exceed January’s figures but is expected to decline for the rest of the year.
The government, led by libertarian President Javier Milei, prioritizes inflation reduction and has implemented strict austerity measures. The administration aims to sustain positive economic momentum as it seeks a new loan from the International Monetary Fund.
In summary, the recent survey revealed that Argentine analysts forecast a year-end inflation rate of 23.3% and a slight increase in economic growth expectations for 2025. The government is prioritizing inflation reduction through austerity measures, with recent data indicating a downward trend in inflation rates. Future clarity will come from the INDEC’s upcoming reports on February inflation and economic performance.
Original Source: www.marketscreener.com
