South Sudan is on the brink of renewed conflict after a Nuer militia, linked to Riek Machar, captured a military base. Tensions are exacerbated by the larger civil war in Sudan, which has disrupted South Sudan’s oil exports and finances. Key leaders must engage diplomatically to avoid escalating violence, particularly in areas like Upper Nile, where ethnic divisions could lead to broader conflict.
South Sudan faces an imminent threat of renewed conflict and political instability. On March 4, a Nuer militia affiliated with Riek Machar, the current first vice president and former rebel leader, captured a significant army base in Nasir, near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. Machar accuses President Salva Kiir’s forces of initiating attacks against his supporters, escalating tensions in the capital, Juba, where several of Machar’s allies have been detained. This fragile situation endangers the unity government established under a 2018 peace agreement that ended five years of civil war.
The 2018 peace agreement between Kiir and Machar, although originally established to halt widespread violence, has remained delicate. Local violence persists, frequently disconnected from the rivalry between the two leaders, and the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan exacerbates these tensions. Since April 2023, the Sudanese conflict between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s military and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo’s RSF has severely impacted South Sudan’s economy and governance. The disruption of oil exports due to damage along a critical pipeline has amplified the financial crisis facing Kiir’s administration.
Kiir’s relationship with both factions in Sudan has become increasingly strained, as economic pressures mount. His prior alignment with Burhan is shifting due to the economic consequences of the ongoing war, necessitating diplomacy with Hemedti’s forces to facilitate oil flow. There is a belief among South Sudanese that the RSF may have intentionally neglected the pipeline’s maintenance, prompting a delicate negotiation process for the resumption of oil exports.
The conflict’s implications in South Sudan could lead to significant upheaval as hostilities erupt in Upper Nile, marking the first major spillover from the Sudanese war. Historical exploitation of ethnic divisions by the Sudanese military raises fears that the military may leverage ties to Nuer militias to create chaos. Current fighting dynamics suggest that tensions cascading from Sudan could allow for wider communal conflicts throughout the region, especially if significant urban centers, such as Malakal, are targeted.
While recent hostilities are concentrated in Upper Nile, the risk of violence escalating and spreading throughout South Sudan remains high. Machar’s protection within Juba, established through prior peace negotiations, is fragile. The recent death of Major General Majur Dak during a failed UN rescue attempt has heightened tensions. The situation’s volatility is exemplified by lingering fears that retaliation might occur against those linked to Machar or the Nuer community in Juba.
President Kiir now risks further alienation among a populace dissatisfied with his prolonged rule. The ongoing political maneuvering aims to consolidate his power within his ethnic base, especially given fragmentation among his allies. Widespread rumors regarding Kiir’s declining health have further complicated succession dynamics, increasing rivalry among potential contenders for leadership.
The potential collapse of both Kiir’s government and the 2018 peace deal poses grave threats to South Sudan, including the risk of ethnic cleansing and militia-driven chaos. The nation stands at a precipice where conflict could blend with Sudan’s civil strife, drawing in various regional players and leading to catastrophic consequences.
Preventing such a disastrous outcome necessitates urgent diplomatic efforts from regional leaders. High-level negotiations by influential figures like Kenyan President William Ruto and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are imperative to stabilize South Sudan. Additionally, the UN’s peacekeeping mission stands ready to assist in humanitarian crises, ensuring that measures are in place to protect civilians and prevent widespread violence. The window for averting another cycle of fierce conflict is narrowing, but immediate intervention could still change the trajectory towards stability.
In conclusion, South Sudan is approaching a critical juncture marked by escalating violence and political instability. The precarious unity government faces threats from rival factions and external pressures due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Without decisive action from regional leaders and the international community, the potential for violence and ethnic conflict in South Sudan remains alarmingly high. Urgent diplomatic engagement is necessary to prevent a descent into chaos that could have far-reaching implications for the region.
Original Source: www.pmldaily.com
