Forecasters report a decreasing likelihood of a new storm forming in the Caribbean, with a mid-Atlantic disturbance’s development probability now at 20%. Meanwhile, a disturbance off Central America shows a 40% chance of strengthening. Heavy rainfall is expected in Central America and southern Mexico, regardless of storm formation.
Forecasters have announced a declining potential for the formation of a new storm in proximity to the Caribbean. Once again, the National Hurricane Center has reduced the likelihood of a mid-Atlantic disturbance developing into a significant weather system. As of Thursday evening, the probability of this disturbance strengthening in the coming week was reported at 20%, with a mere 10% chance within the next two days. Even if this disturbance manages to withstand adverse conditions such as dry air and the detrimental effects of wind shear caused by a nearby cold front, the predominant computer models predict that it will travel westward across the Caribbean as a weak storm, potentially bringing only light precipitation. Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel articulated the situation, stating, “It’s either going to get absorbed by the front or die moving west. With the deep fall trough and front pushing through Florida, this creates a safe haven for the USA.” In contrast, a different atmospheric disturbance located off the coast of Central America appears to have an increasing likelihood of development, with the National Hurricane Center indicating a 40% chance for it to evolve into a tropical depression within the next one to seven days. However, forecasters caution that this system is likely to gain strength only over open waters, with most models forecasting its eventual return towards land, posing a risk of substantial rainfall. The National Hurricane Center has emphasized, “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.” This report incorporates contributions from Miami Herald reporter Devoun Cetoute. Originally published on October 17, 2024, at 8:08 AM.
The Atlantic hurricane season typically spans from June 1 to November 30, with the Caribbean often serving as a critical region for storm formation. Meteorological phenomena such as dry air and wind shear can significantly impact the development and trajectory of storms in this area. The National Hurricane Center systematically analyzes these conditions and provides forecasts to assist in preparedness and response efforts in vulnerable regions.
In summary, the potential for a new storm development near the Caribbean is diminishing, with a notably low chance for significant strengthening of a mid-Atlantic disturbance. Conversely, an increased likelihood of development exists for a separate system near Central America, indicating potential for heavy rainfall despite its uncertain trajectory. The situation continues to evolve as meteorologists monitor prevailing conditions.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
