Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia have united to form a security alliance against Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, amidst escalating regional tensions. The partnership aims to bolster Somali state institutions in combating terrorism and may exacerbate intra-Somali clan divisions. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught with external influences, underscoring the need for a nuanced understanding of these developments in the Horn of Africa.
In a critical development for the Horn of Africa, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia have forged an alliance aimed at countering what they view as provocations by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This coalition, announced during Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s visit to Asmara, is intended to bolster Somali state institutions to better address security challenges, including the persistent threat of terrorism from al-Shabab. The security partnership is a significant step following Egypt’s military assistance to Somalia and its request for the African Union to replace Ethiopian peacekeeping forces with its own troops. This move occurs against a backdrop of escalating tensions over Ethiopia’s maneuvering for access to the Red Sea and its controversial dam project on the Nile, which has long been a point of contention for Egypt, given its implications for water security. In addition, Egypt’s involvement in the civil conflicts in Sudan complicates the regional dynamics further. These countries now align with external powers, complicating the situation by introducing new stakes in an already volatile environment. Furthermore, concerns arise regarding the potential for this alliance to exacerbate unrest within Somalia, particularly among the various clan factions that already contend with a fractured governance structure. Although the likelihood of a direct conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia currently appears low due to Somalia’s beleaguered military situation, the rising cooperation between Egypt and Eritrea could reignite tensions. Experts warn that the character of both Ethiopian and Eritrean leadership could set the stage for potential calamity in the region.
The formation of this new alliance comes amidst years of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, primarily fueled by territorial disputes, historical animosities, and struggles over resources such as water and access to shipping routes. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the involvement of external powers like the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, which back opposing sides in regional conflicts. The ongoing ramifications of the Ethiopian civil war, particularly its impacts on neighboring states and their internal conflicts, heighten the urgency of these alliances. They represent not only strategic military partnerships but also reflections of national interests regarding sovereignty and historical grievances, particularly surrounding Ethiopia’s access to maritime resources. This geopolitical chess game includes the recent Ethiopian Agreement with Somaliland regarding coast access, which has been met with strong opposition from Somalia, complicating the historical territorial claims.
The formation of an anti-Ethiopian alliance by Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia underscores significant geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa. This development reflects escalating concerns over regional stability, particularly regarding security threats posed by groups like al-Shabab, and ongoing territorial and resource-related disputes. As these nations align with external powers in search of strategic advantages, the potential for renewed conflict rises, necessitating vigilant observation of military, political, and humanitarian developments in the region. It is crucial for international stakeholders to recognize the complexities of these alliances to foster peace and prevent further escalation of conflicts.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
