La Niña, which began in January 2025, is projected to end soon, raising concerns about global temperatures and hurricane activity. A coastal El Niño with significantly elevated sea temperatures off South America poses further risks, especially for Peru. Predictions indicate that changes in ocean patterns may lead to warmer global temperatures and altered hurricane seasons, warranting close observation of climatic developments.
La Niña, which emerged in the Pacific Ocean in January, is expected to conclude soon. This phenomenon is typically associated with cooler ocean temperatures and has not significantly reduced global heat levels through 2025, except in the United States. As La Niña fades, potential implications regarding global temperatures and hurricane activity arise, suggesting that another record warm year might be approaching.
Currently, an unusual coastal El Niño, with temperatures over five degrees above average, is developing off the coast of South America. This phenomenon, known as El Niño Costero, may affect global weather patterns. Previous occurrences, such as those in 2017 and 2023, resulted in severe flooding and increased disease rates in Peru, showcasing the risks associated with rising sea temperatures.
The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has issued an “El Niño Costero Watch.” Should elevated sea temperatures persist for three months, an official declaration will be made. Recent wind patterns that changed abruptly led to rapid ocean warming; however, accurate prediction remains difficult, particularly in the eastern Pacific.
Ken Takahashi Guevara of the Geophysical Institute of Peru notes that the current warming is largely independent of La Niña’s influence in the central Pacific. This coastal warming poses significant risks, especially to Peru where unusual rainfall can affect livelihoods. Abraham Levy emphasized that excessive heat and unusual rainfall are characteristic of these events, impacting agriculture and fisheries, crucial economic sectors in the region.
Historical data demonstrates that stronger El Niño Costero events have been linked to severe weather outcomes. Notably, the early 2017 and 2023 events led to catastrophic flooding and outbreaks of disease. While predictions for 2025 suggest a full El Niño may be less likely, it remains a possibility that cannot be entirely dismissed.
As La Niña fluctuates, global cooling effects have weakened, raising concerns about elevated future temperatures. Marine heat waves persist across ocean basins, echoing patterns seen before La Niña’s arrival. The World Meteorological Organization posits a 60 percent chance of a transition to neutral ENSO conditions by mid-year, marking a significant climatic shift.
Takahashi warns that traditional metrics may underestimate the strength of La Niña due to rising global temperatures. Its impacts on global weather may linger beyond what metrics suggest. Depending on the warm waters near South America, the likelihood of an active hurricane season could be reduced, as these warm waters typically dry the Atlantic, inhibiting storm formations.
Should the eastern Pacific warming continue, and if it spreads, global temperatures could rise significantly despite La Niña’s brief existence earlier in the year.
In conclusion, the imminent conclusion of La Niña and the emergence of a coastal El Niño may have profound implications for global temperature trends and hurricane activity. As warming waters threaten to disrupt established weather patterns, scientists caution the potential for another record warm year ahead. The significance of these phenomena underscores the interconnectedness of ocean temperatures and climate impacts worldwide.
Original Source: www.washingtonpost.com
