ICPAC’s March-May 2025 forecast highlights increased likelihood of extreme temperatures in the IGAD region. Weekly updates from February indicate persistence of severe heat across the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly affecting South Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya. Observed temperatures in February exceeded 40°C in multiple areas, suggesting potential human and socio-economic impacts.
In March 2025, the International Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) provided an update during the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 69). This forecast indicated a significant chance of warmer-than-normal conditions across the IGAD region from March to May. Stakeholders were advised to remain vigilant for forecast updates, particularly on sub-seasonal scales, where many climate-related hazards may emerge.
Throughout February, weekly forecasts suggested the continuation of warmer temperature anomalies across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). This situation heightened the potential risk of extreme temperature hazards. Notably, observed temperatures during February demonstrated that regions in South Sudan, Uganda, northern, and western Kenya consistently experienced extreme heat, with average daily maximum temperatures surpassing 38°C.
Specifically, from February 1 to 28, parts of South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, northern Kenya, and southern Somalia recorded daily maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C. This concerning trend raises alarms regarding potential adverse effects on human health, livestock welfare, and overall socio-economic activities within the region.
The ongoing heat wave in the IGAD region, particularly in South Sudan and surrounding areas, necessitates continued monitoring and updates regarding temperature forecasts. The anticipated warmer-than-normal conditions pose significant threats to public health and livestock, underscoring the need for immediate attention and interventions to mitigate these effects.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
