On March 1, Venezuela’s warship entered Guyana’s EEZ, escalating tensions over the Essequibo dispute. Despite a recent agreement to de-escalate, Venezuela’s ongoing military assertiveness towards Guyana’s oil operations threatens regional stability. International support remains crucial for Guyana to counter these provocations, as Maduro seeks to consolidate power amid domestic and geopolitical challenges.
On March 1, a Venezuelan warship intruded into Guyana’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the Liza Destiny oil facility, demanding information from its crew. This act heightened tensions between Guyana and Venezuela. Guyana condemned the incursion, receiving backing from the international community while assuring military readiness to defend its sovereignty, to which Venezuela claimed that the waters in question were part of a disputed maritime zone.
Over the past 18 months, the Essequibo territorial dispute has seen fluctuating tensions, with Venezuela initiating a referendum process to establish a new state named “Guayana Esequiba” despite an International Court of Justice ruling to refrain from such actions. The Maduro regime used this referendum to consolidate internal support on a historically bipartisan issue. In response, Guyana legally challenged this referendum. Additionally, Venezuela expanded its military base on Anacoco Island while both presidents met to sign the Argyle Accords to de-escalate tensions.
Despite the agreement, tensions were reignited when the United Kingdom sent a warship to Guyana, prompting Venezuela to prepare military exercises with significant troop involvement. Subsequent violations of the Argyle Accords by Maduro’s government included the signing of a law to officially claim “Guayana Esequiba.” In January 2025, Venezuela announced plans to elect a governor for this contested state, further intensifying conflict as Guyana sought the ICJ’s assistance amid increasing border violence.
Maduro’s focus on the Essequibo dispute appears motivated by the need to solidify internal support while signaling to external entities of his willingness to challenge their interests. Satellite imagery indicated a military buildup in the region, reflecting a strategy to compel Guyana into negotiations. Maduro’s actions may also be intended to distract from domestic issues while benefiting from an anticipated shift in U.S. policy that could regard regional stability as a priority.
The March 1 incident represents a notable escalation in Venezuela’s harassment of Guyana’s oil operations, particularly as it occurred near a non-disputed maritime area, showcasing Venezuela’s military assertiveness. The Venezuelan warship’s actions served as an outright threat to the growing production capabilities of Guyana’s oil sector, which is now positioned to surpass Venezuela’s output.
International involvement is crucial in mitigating the ongoing conflict. Without significant support from regional partners and the United States, Venezuela is unlikely to curb its belligerent actions. Maduro’s strategy to internationalize the conflict prompts comparisons to global power dynamics, although the U.S. approach has leaned towards retrenchment in foreign commitments. The roles of Brazil, China, and European nations could be pivotal in influencing a cooperative resolution.
The current crisis demands a coordinated international response to deter Venezuela’s aggressive military posturing towards Guyana. The involvement of regional and global powers could stabilize the situation while ensuring that respect for international law remains paramount in efforts to resolve the territorial and maritime dispute.
In summary, Venezuela’s recent naval incursion into Guyana’s EEZ has escalated a longstanding dispute over the Essequibo territory. The international community’s support is vital for Guyana to maintain sovereignty against Venezuelan provocation. Maduro’s strategy appears to leverage domestic political consolidation and external posturing to deter international scrutiny. A unified response from regional and international actors is essential to mitigate tensions and uphold international law in this conflict.
Original Source: www.csis.org
