Hezbollah is in crisis following a significant loss to Israel and the death of Hassan Nasrallah. Facing domestic discontent among Lebanese Shiites, the group required a lifeline, which it found in a large turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral. This event reaffirmed Hezbollah’s strength and deterred potential actions against it, while highlighting the critical need for reconstruction and arms retention in its post-war strategies.
Hezbollah is currently facing a severe crisis following a considerable military setback against Israel, which resulted in the loss of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, and significant damage to its operational capabilities. As the group struggles with a perceived decline in domestic support, particularly among Lebanese Shiites, the repercussions of a prolonged economic hardship stemming from Lebanon’s financial collapse in 2019 intensify, with many attributing the war with Israel as an exacerbation of their suffering. In this precarious situation, Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 provided a crucial opportunity for the group to consolidate its position and deter any government actions that could threaten its armed status.
Hezbollah’s strength in Lebanon is rooted strongly in the robust support it garners from the Shiite community, which remains the largest and most rapidly growing sect in the nation. In the most recent parliamentary elections in May 2022, Hezbollah achieved a commanding victory, securing approximately 356,000 votes—far surpassing its nearest competitor by about 150,000 votes. Recent polls indicate that an overwhelming majority of Lebanese Shiites—between 89 percent and 93 percent—continue to support Hezbollah, underscoring the group’s enduring popularity within its core demographic.
The party’s model, described as the “Nation of Hezbollah,” cultivates wide community engagement and responsiveness, which has facilitated its legitimacy within Lebanon’s complex sectarian political framework. Such expansive backing is paramount to Hezbollah’s influence in the political arena, making it imperative for the group to continue attracting and maintaining Shiite support in a society fraught with sectarian divisions.
Following the recent conflict, Hezbollah’s core agenda includes maintaining its military capabilities and ensuring the arrival of reconstruction funds to assist the Shiite community. New Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged the need to adhere to the ceasefire terms with Israel which demands arms control south of the Litani River, while simultaneously pushing for a dialogue regarding arms management in the remaining areas of Lebanon. This dual commitment represents both a tactical adjustment and a strategic necessity for Hezbollah’s future.
The reconstruction of war-torn communities is another critical aspect for Hezbollah, as articulated by Qassem, who emphasized that the Lebanese government must take the lead in rallying for international aid. Assigning this responsibility to the Lebanese state shifts the onus of funding and potential criticism for any failures in aid delivery away from Hezbollah and towards the broader government apparatus, reflecting a strategic maneuver to reinforce its standing.
The funeral of Nasrallah was not only a moment of mourning; it also served as a platform to demonstrate Hezbollah’s sustained support. Reports of attendance varied widely, with estimates fluctuating from 200,000 to over 1.4 million participants, though a Beirut-based research firm concluded that the turnout was likely between 700,000 and 900,000. This substantial showing aims to refute claims of waning support following the recent war, while also sending a clear message to the Lebanese authorities regarding Hezbollah’s continuing influence.
In light of the massive turnout, Hezbollah’s position appears fortified, managing to mitigate threats to its disarmament and reinforcing its negotiation power with political leaders like Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Salam, whose government is tasked with numerous reforms and reconstruction efforts, must navigate the political landscape delicately to avoid conflict with Hezbollah or risking a backlash from the Shiite supporters. The vast show of unity at Nasrallah’s funeral serves as a reminder that any confrontation with Hezbollah risks broader sectarian conflict.
While many supporters back Hezbollah for practical reasons, its long-standing emotional connection with the community remains a key element of its resilience. The turnout at the funeral reinforced the notion that an attack on Hezbollah translates to an attack on the Shiite community as a whole. Although the group’s survival is not guaranteed, its recent actions have certainly assured its presence within Lebanon’s political future, allowing it to potentially strengthen its influence over time amidst the region’s evolving dynamics.
Hezbollah’s recent struggles following a confrontation with Israel, marked by the death of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, prompted a significant response from the group in the form of a high-profile funeral. This event served to solidify Hezbollah’s standing within the Lebanese Shiite community amid calls for disarmament and reconstruction efforts. The group’s capacity to maintain its arms while advocating for reconstruction funds reflects a strategic shift aimed at preserving both its military strength and its legitimacy in the eyes of its supporters. Ultimately, this consolidation of support amidst challenging circumstances will play a pivotal role in shaping Hezbollah’s trajectory in the immediate future and its ongoing influence within Lebanon.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
