Egypt is ramping up its military mission in Somalia in preparation for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops by the deadline of December 31. This build-up involves training Somali forces to combat militants and a significant military cooperation agreement between the countries. The situation is rooted in regional tensions related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which has exacerbated conflicts over water rights, contributing to deteriorating relations among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia.
Egypt is intensifying its military presence in Somalia ahead of the impending December 31 deadline for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. According to sources familiar with the situation, Cairo is not only training and equipping Somali security forces to combat Al Qaeda-affiliated militants but has also established a significant military cooperation agreement with Somalia, which was formalized in August. As part of this collaboration, Egypt has dispatched weapons, military advisors, and counter-terrorism forces to Mogadishu. It is anticipated that thousands of Egyptian personnel will be actively involved in the operation by the year’s end. Currently, Ethiopia maintains approximately 22,000 troops in Somalia under a mutual arrangement and as a component of an African Union peacekeeping initiative aimed at combating Al Shabab. The relationship between Egypt and Somalia has soured with Ethiopia over regional tensions, especially regarding a controversial dam on the Nile, which Cairo argues will jeopardize its water supply. In light of these developments, Egypt has announced its intention to replace the Ethiopian peacekeepers upon their withdrawal, a move supported by the Somali government. Sources suggest that Somali forces, backed by Egypt, have already begun monitoring the logistics used by Ethiopian troops to deter any attempts of troop reinforcements before the deadline passes. Following Egypt’s military support, Ethiopian forces have reportedly expanded their military footprint in Somalia in an attempt to counterbalance Egypt’s involvement. Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie expressed concern that external arms would endanger Somalia’s security, potentially bolstering terrorist activities. In contrast, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi accused Ethiopia of attempting to deflect attention from its own issues regarding illicit weapons smuggling across the Somali border. Concurrently, discussions regarding the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam were cited as a central issue, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi emphasizing the Nile’s significance for Egypt’s existence and calling for enhanced cooperation among Nile Basin countries. Egypt’s proactive military strategy in Somalia and efforts to strengthen ties with Eritrea signify its determination to exert pressure on Ethiopia regarding the dam negotiations, particularly following a recent summit between El Sisi and leaders from Somalia and Eritrea.
The military buildup by Egypt in Somalia is part of a broader context of regional geopolitical tensions primarily driven by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. This dam, which Ethiopia claims is essential for its development, has raised serious concerns in downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan about their water security. The situation in Somalia is further complicated by internal conflicts and external military presences, with Ethiopia contributing troops under previous agreements aimed at stabilizing the region. Egypt’s military cooperation with Somalia is seen as a strategic maneuver to counterbalance Ethiopian influence and to safeguard its concerns regarding the Nile’s water resources. Negotiations over the GERD have been characterized by contention, with Egypt seeking legally binding agreements concerning the dam’s operations and filling, a matter that remains unresolved after a decade of discussions. Moreover, the tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, following the latter’s peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, add another layer of complexity to this geopolitical landscape, influencing Egypt’s approach in the Horn of Africa.
In summary, Egypt’s military expansion in Somalia reflects its strategic diplomacy and national security concerns, particularly surrounding the ongoing tensions with Ethiopia about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Through its military cooperation with the Somali government and a commitment to train and equip local forces, Egypt aims to replace Ethiopian troops by the end of the year while simultaneously addressing its water security issues. The response from both Egypt and Somalia highlights a unified front against perceived threats from Ethiopia, underscoring the intricate dynamics and fragile security situation in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
