China reported a slight increase in emissions for 2024, missing a critical climate target as coal remains dominant despite renewable energy growth. Carbon intensity declined by 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent goal. Analysts predict it will be challenging for China to meet its commitment to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent by 2030. Major reforms in the energy sector and the strategic Five-Year Plan are anticipated to address these issues.
China has not met a crucial climate target for 2024, with emissions slightly increasing as coal continues to be a major energy source, despite significant renewable energy growth, according to recent official data. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, failing to achieve the 3.9 percent target. Analysts highlighted that this shortfall indicates China is falling behind its goal of an 18 percent decline in emissions between 2020 and 2025.
While carbon emissions exhibited a minor rise from the previous year, experts debate whether China has peaked in emissions ahead of its 2030 goal. However, reaching their commitment to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 remains a formidable challenge. Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air remarked, “This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.”
Despite being the largest greenhouse gas emitter, China is also a leader in renewable energy installation, with plans to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2060. Analysts suggest that emissions may have stabilized due to slow economic growth and rapid advancements in renewable energy, though determining when actual peak emissions occur will require extensive future data. David Fishman of the Lantau Group stated, “I don’t see the structural conditions in place for meaningful (emissions) decline between now and the official peak (target) in 2030.”
China’s coal dependence continues to impede progress toward climate objectives, as the industrial sector’s expansion drives energy consumption beyond the pace of clean energy infrastructure development. Muyi Yang from Ember indicated that reforms are necessary to enhance energy market flexibility, ensuring industrial growth proceeds without compromising sustainability. The NBS data unveiled a 4.3 percent rise in total energy consumption, with coal supplying over half the nation’s energy needs.
In light of these developments, experts predict a near future where all incremental electricity demands will be met through renewable sources, thus precipitating a decrease in coal-powered energy. A pivotal announcement concerning China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 is anticipated later this year, which will likely revise emissions and energy targets. Additionally, an update of emissions targets under the Paris Agreement is forthcoming, although it was initially expected in February.
In summary, China has fallen short of its 2024 climate target, with a slight increase in emissions and a significant reliance on coal, posing challenges to meeting future commitments under the Paris Agreement. As the country advances toward its 2030 peak emissions goal, the need for significant reforms in the energy sector is critical to achieving long-term sustainability and reducing carbon intensity. The upcoming Five-Year Plan and updated emissions goals will be pivotal in shaping China’s climate strategy.
Original Source: www.communitynewspapergroup.com
