Following the fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024, Lebanon and Syria face a potential reset in relations under new leadership. However, risks of sectarian conflict, Hezbollah’s diminished power, and threats from radical groups complicate the diplomatic landscape. Tensions along the border and Israeli aggressiveness further challenge prospects for stability between the two nations as they pursue opportunities for cooperation amid an uncertain regional atmosphere.
Lebanon and Syria share a connected destiny, and recent political changes could allow relations to improve. With interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria and President Joseph Aoun in Lebanon, hopes for a new bilateral chapter arise. However, risks of sectarian conflict and instability persist, dampening prospects for peace in this new era of relations.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 sparked jubilation in Lebanon, marking a significant historical milestone. The Syrian military had occupied Lebanon for nearly three decades after intervening in its civil war in 1976, and although the occupation formally ended in 2005, Syria’s influence through Hezbollah continued. As a conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah, Syria cemented the latter’s power in the country.
Although many Lebanese viewed Assad’s ousting positively, Hezbollah perceived it as a significant setback. With Hezbollah’s military capacity diminished following a war with Israel and its leadership under scrutiny, the new Syrian government, hostile toward the group, further complicates matters. Recent sentiments among Syrians regarding Hezbollah’s funeral of Hassan Nasrallah indicate widespread repudiation of the organization.
Yeghia Tashjian, an analyst from the Issam Fares Institute, noted that without Assad’s support, Hezbollah faces vulnerability; it now lacks the necessary transit routes for Iranian weaponry amid Israeli pressure. The organization grapples with rising opposition within Lebanon, attributed to resource depletion and economic decline during the Syrian conflict. Additionally, Hezbollah’s bid for presidential candidate Suleiman Frangieh faltered post-Assad, weakening its political standing in Lebanon.
Recent developments reveal Syria’s interim leadership displaying indifference towards aggressive Israeli actions, heightening concerns for Hezbollah. Analyst Ali Rizk remarked on the regime’s lack of resistance against Israel, contrasting with prior Assad-era stances. This perceived erosion of unity against external threats presents potential challenges for Hezbollah in connecting to Syria’s new regime.
As Lebanon grapples with its international relations, Salafi networks within the country have grown bolder following the new regime’s establishment in Syria. As a result, fears of intensified sectarian conflict in Lebanon loom, particularly due to the new radical elements seeking retribution against Hezbollah. Observers like Rizk caution that these growing threats may also extend toward the Lebanese army, perceived by some as complicit in Hezbollah’s activities.
Furthermore, Lebanon’s internal divisions exacerbate its dealings with Syria. While some Lebanese citizens welcome Assad’s removal as a hopeful sign for the future, others fear rising tensions and external opportunism, particularly from Israel. Both nations bear the scars of war, necessitating avenues for rebuilding following the conflict and the devastation of civil war.
Key issues shaping Lebanese-Syrian relations include the management of Syrian assets in Lebanese banks, essential for facilitating the return of Syrian refugees. Agreements formed between leaders, such as Sharaa and Najib Mikati, highlight the interconnectivity of these subjects, particularly amidst ongoing border tensions and shifting political dynamics within both countries.
Moreover, recent border skirmishes between Lebanese Shia clans and Syrian forces illustrate the fragile situation. Following clashes, President Aoun’s communication with Sharaa underscored an intention to stabilize border relations. However, analysts like Dr. Karim Emile Bitar argue that Syria’s ability to maintain control over its territory remains questionable, which might lead to ongoing conflicts.
Israel’s ongoing military actions and policies in the region will crucially influence future Lebanese-Syrian relations. The Lebanese community desires clarity regarding Syria’s stance on Israel and how this could affect bilateral cooperation. Increased regional instability, coupled with national reconstruction efforts, emphasizes the need for both states to establish a balance of power while collaborating to achieve stability in the face of external pressures.
In conclusion, while the newly elected Lebanese leadership appears inclined to foster positive relations with Syria’s interim government, sustainable stability in Syria is critical. The potential for conflict lingers due to israel’s aggressive posture and the existence of extremist groups within Syria, marking a challenging path ahead for Beirut-Damascus relations as they navigate a complex regional landscape.
The relationship between Lebanon and Syria faces both opportunities and challenges in the wake of the Assad regime’s fall. While there are signs that the newly appointed governments may seek improved relations, significant hurdles exist, including sectarian tensions and regional instability exacerbated by Israeli actions. Continuous efforts towards cooperation and stability will be essential for both nations as they navigate their intricate political landscape.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
