China fell short of its climate target in 2024, with emissions slightly rising despite record renewable energy additions. The NBS reported a 3.4% decrease in carbon intensity, failing to meet the 3.9% target. Analysts warn achieving the 2030 climate goals will be extremely challenging without major reforms, as coal continues to dominate the energy landscape.
In 2024, China missed a crucial climate target as emissions increased slightly, according to official figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Despite significant advancements in renewable energy, coal remains the predominant energy source. Analysts indicated that this trend puts China off course regarding its commitments under the Paris climate agreement, as it aims for a notable drop in carbon intensity by 2030.
The NBS revealed a 3.4 percent decline in carbon intensity, which measures carbon dioxide emissions relative to GDP, falling short of the targeted 3.9 percent. Moreover, this performance indicates that the country is lagging in its objective of achieving an 18 percent reduction from 2020 levels by 2025. Analysts express concern over the rising carbon emissions, speculating China may have reached peak emissions ahead of schedule, yet further data will be required to confirm this.
Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, remarked, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target”. Experts stress that fulfilling commitments by 2030 will be a significant test of China’s resolve regarding global climate agreements.
Despite being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China has positioned itself as a leader in renewable energy. With plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060, some analysts speculate that recent growth and renewed energy installations may have stabilized emissions. Understanding when an emissions peak occurs will require continuous monitoring and retrospective analysis.
David Fishman, senior manager at the Lantau Group, stated, “I don’t see the structural conditions in place for meaningful (emissions) decline between now and the official peak (target) in 2030”. Furthermore, coal consumption continues to be a central concern, as expanding coal facilities delay transitions to nuclear and hydro energy sources.
According to Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure”. As total energy consumption rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, coal accounted for over half of the nation’s energy needs, despite notable gains in renewable sources.
Yang explained that China is nearing a point where all increased electricity demand could be met by renewable resources. Once this milestone is reached, coal consumption is expected to decline in absolute terms, paving the way for greener alternatives. Beijing is anticipated to announce its 15th Five-Year Plan later this year, which will likely address emissions and energy goals.
In summary, China’s 2024 climate commitments have not been met, with emissions slightly rising despite advancements in renewable energy. The country is lagging in its targets under the Paris Agreement, particularly in reducing carbon intensity. Experts emphasize the need for structural changes to achieve viable emissions decline and fulfill upcoming goals. With the announcement of the 15th Five-Year Plan forthcoming, there is hope for updated, more aggressive climate strategies moving forward.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com
