China missed its climate target for 2024, with a slight rise in emissions amidst coal dominance, despite advances in renewable energy. The country’s carbon intensity reduction was 3.4%, lower than the 3.9% goal, underscoring challenges ahead to meet future commitments. Industrial growth remains a primary factor hindering progress towards emissions targets as China aims to peak emissions by 2030.
Recent official data indicate that China missed its key climate target for 2024, as emissions in the nation rose slightly, attributing to its reliance on coal despite record achievements in renewable energy. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity—measured as emissions per GDP unit—falling short of the official goal of 3.9 percent, and lagging behind the 18-percent reduction target set for the period from 2020 to 2025.
While emissions increased from the previous year, analysts noted that such rises are considerably lower than prior spikes, leading to speculation that China may have reached its peak emissions ahead of the 2030 objective. Nonetheless, the data suggests substantial challenges ahead for China to fulfill its commitment to a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated the urgency of this milestone, asserting, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in the period 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
China, the foremost emitter of greenhouse gases, is simultaneously a major player in renewable energy production, intending to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. Analysts earlier anticipated that a slowdown in growth and rapid renewable energy advancements might lead to decreased emissions in 2024. However, understanding the peak emissions point will require more data in subsequent years.
The rapid growth of China’s industrial sector continues to impede progress towards its climate goals. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, highlighted that “rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure.” To avert compromising a sustainable energy future, reforms in market flexibility and the expansion of clean energy infrastructure are vital.
According to the NBS report, energy consumption rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal—responsible for significant carbon emissions—still accounting for more than half of the country’s energy supply. However, renewables experienced remarkable growth last year, signaling a potential shift. Yang emphasized that “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources,” indicating a future decline in coal power once this threshold is surpassed.
Beijing plans to release details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which will likely encompass updated emissions targets and energy goals. China is also expected to submit its revised emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in February. Although this deadline was missed, UN officials anticipate that most NDCs will be submitted within the year.
In summary, China failed to achieve a significant climate target for 2024 as it continues to grapple with rising emissions and a heavy dependence on coal. Although renewable energy development is accelerating, industrial growth presents ongoing obstacles to meeting carbon intensity reduction goals. The anticipated Five-Year Plan and update on NDCs are critical for addressing these challenges and reaffirming China’s commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Original Source: www.france24.com
