The M23 armed group has gained control in eastern DRC, closing in on Goma due to weaknesses in the Congolese army and Rwandan support. Over 230,000 have fled violence, as the FARDC struggles under inadequate resources and morale. Diplomatic efforts for peace have stalled, raising concerns about the group’s further ambitions in the region.
The M23 armed group has made significant territorial gains in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening its hold on Goma, a provincial capital nearly encircled by armed conflict. Experts indicate that the group’s expansion is facilitated by both economic weaknesses in the Congolese army and support from Rwanda, raising concerns about a potential offensive on Goma, a key area in a region plagued by conflict for three decades.
Recent clashes between the M23 and the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) have escalated, resulting in a dramatic rise in displaced persons—over 230,000 have fled since January, according to the United Nations. The Congolese army conceded a significant defeat, referring to a breakthrough by “the Rwandan army and its M23 puppets” following the capture of Minova, a strategic trading point 50 kilometers from Goma.
A United Nations expert report suggested that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan soldiers are actively fighting alongside the M23, claiming that Rwanda effectively controls the armed group’s operations. However, Rwandan officials have not formally acknowledged any incursions into the DRC. Recently, M23 seized Masisi, further threatening Goma’s economic viability by gaining access to vital supply lines.
With armed groups surrounding Goma for nearly two years, the FARDC and allied militias have established defensive perimeters, but analysts doubt they would provide effective resistance in an offensive scenario. The MONUSCO peacekeeping force stationed in Goma’s vicinity faces uncertainty regarding its role should the city fall.
A previously scheduled meeting aimed at peace negotiations between Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, mediated by Angola, was canceled due to disagreements. As noted by Reagan Miviri from the Ebuteli Institute, “nothing prevents the M23 and Rwanda from trying to take Goma” in the current geopolitical landscape.
There are concerns that potential political shifts, such as a return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, could alter Rwanda’s approach to its activities in the DRC. The eastern DRC region is rich in mineral resources and has been a hotspot of violence involving various armed factions since the 1990s.
The M23, initially formed from a mutiny within a faction of the Congolese army in 2012, captured Goma briefly before being expelled. Following a resurgence in 2021, the FARDC has since struggled to reclaim lost territories, hampered by issues of corruption, inadequate resources, and low morale within its ranks. Analysts highlight the ineffectiveness of Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops in providing support, suggesting that their lack of action is becoming apparent.
The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly in the eastern region, has historical roots linked to various armed groups and geopolitical factors. The M23 group emerged from previous conflicts and has continued to disrupt the stability of the region, fueled by external support and long-standing weaknesses in the Congolese military. The involvement of Rwandan forces, coupled with the rich mineral resources in the area, exacerbates the complexities of the conflict and poses significant humanitarian challenges as seen with the large number of displaced populations.
In summary, the M23 group’s advancement in eastern DRC poses a critical threat to Goma and highlights the vulnerabilities of the Congolese army, compounded by external support from Rwanda. The situation remains precarious, ignoring ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising serious humanitarian concerns as violence escalates. Effective international intervention and support are crucial to foster stability in this mineral-rich and conflict-ridden region.
Original Source: www.barrons.com
