The earthquake in Syria has ignited tensions in Lebanon, particularly among Sunni populations, who have begun to demand the release of imprisoned Sunni Islamists. Hezbollah’s weakened status and a divided Christian community add layers of complexity to the political landscape as Lebanon approaches presidential elections in January 2025.
The recent earthquake in Syria has significantly impacted Lebanon, revealing underlying tensions within its political landscape. Initially, the collapse of the Assad regime sparked celebrations among Sunni communities in Lebanon, particularly in cities like Tripoli and Sidon. However, these celebrations quickly turned into demands for the release of Sunni prisoners from state jails, led by figures such as Sheikh Ahmad Shemali. The Sunni community, invigorated by the emergence of the jihadist group Tahrir al Sham in Syria, seeks to reclaim influence amid the weakened Hezbollah following defeats in Syria.
The prospect of amnesty for imprisoned Islamists poses a complex challenge for Lebanese politics. It is unlikely that President Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah, will support such a move. This reluctance underscores the possibility of reviving Syrian influence in Lebanon, albeit through Sunni channels. Hezbollah is currently grappling with its diminished status resulting from military setbacks and loss of support, complicating its role in the Lebanese political arena.
The recent meeting between General Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa highlighted the growing tensions regarding the distribution of military power in southern Lebanon. Aoun, viewed as a potential presidential candidate, insists on enforcing a ceasefire agreement that may threaten Hezbollah’s arms. This could lead to political shifts in the January 2025 presidential election.
The Christian political factions are fragmented, with notable leaders like Samir Geagea and Jibran Bassil vying for influence but lacking the strength to nominate a unifying candidate to face the looming threats. Finally, the awakening of the Sunni community coincides with the establishment of a Sunni regime in Syria, raising worries about potential instability spilling into Lebanon, reminiscent of past conflicts with ISIS. Although the new Syrian regime appears to seek stability rather than incitement against Lebanon, the developments in Syria will undoubtedly have repercussions across the border.
The political climate in Lebanon has been tense following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has led to both celebrations and unrest within different Lebanese communities. The Sunni-majority areas have responded with demands for justice regarding imprisoned Sunni Islamists, reflecting a greater awakening and assertiveness among Lebanese Sunnis. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s diminished military capabilities following recent confrontations pose significant challenges to its political dominance. The complexity of Christian factionalism complicates the political dynamics further, as Lebanon prepares for future elections amidst growing Sunni activism.
In summary, Lebanon’s political landscape is transitioning amidst the fallout from the Syrian civil war. The Sunni community’s newfound assertiveness, coupled with Hezbollah’s weakened position and a divided Christian political front, signals potential shifts in power dynamics. As Lebanon prepares for upcoming elections, these internal tensions, alongside developments in Syria, are likely to shape the country’s future political stability.
Original Source: aurora-israel.co.il
