The article discusses the political shifts in Lebanon following the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, characterized by Sunni mobilization for prisoner amnesty, growing tensions between Hizbullah and the Lebanese Armed Forces, and the fragmented Christian political landscape. These elements illustrate the precarious balance of power and the potential for unrest within Lebanon, influenced by developments in Syria.
The dynamics within Lebanon have shifted significantly following the collapse of President Assad’s regime in Syria, which sparked jubilation among the Sunni population, particularly in regions like Tripoli and Beirut. However, this initial celebration has quickly evolved into demands for the release of Sunni prisoners in Lebanese state prisons. Prominently, Sheikh Ahmad Shemali led the charge for amnesty during a protest on December 10, asserting that this movement is merely the beginning of further escalations.
As the Sunni community mobilizes, catalyzed by the rising influence of the jihadist group Tahrir al-Sham in Syria, there exists a desire to reestablish Sunni dominance against the backdrop of a weakened Hizbullah. The political landscape is complex, as any decision regarding amnesty rests with Nabih Berri, a prominent Shiite leader and ally of Hizbullah, complicating the Sunni community’s aspirations.
Amid political turmoil, Hizbullah faces challenges from internal dissent, particularly highlighted by a recent meeting between General Joseph Aoun, the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Hizbullah’s Wafiq Safa. This meeting underscored Hizbullah’s reluctance to disarm, particularly in the volatile region south of the Litani River, leading to potential conflicts between the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hizbullah over military dominance.
The Lebanese Christian community also grapples with division as they seek a unifying candidate for the presidency. The Free Patriotic Movement, led by Jibran Bassil, stands accused of colluding with Hizbullah, causing friction among Christian factions led by Samir Geagea and others, who struggle to present a unified front amid the current political crisis.
Compounding this instability is the potential for increased jihadist activity, particularly as the Sunni community seeks to align more closely with the new Syrian regime, which, as articulated by its leader Ahmad al Sharaa, seems unwilling to intervene in Lebanon’s affairs for the time being. Nevertheless, this political realignment poses risks that may re-ignite sectarian divisions and unrest if not carefully managed.
The interplay of sectarian politics in Lebanon is deeply intertwined with events in neighboring Syria, particularly following the ousting of the Assad regime, which has resulted in a reawakening of Sunni political activism in Lebanon. The Sunni population’s initial celebrations were soon replaced by calls for justice regarding Sunni prisoners, particularly amid fears of increasing Sunni radicalism. Meanwhile, the Shiite Hizbullah faces significant pressures due to its weakened status following conflicts with Israel and its historical ties with the Assad regime. Complications arise with the Christian community’s attempts to navigate this precarious political landscape amidst fears of instability and the potential for jihadist influences.
The political landscape in Lebanon remains uncertain following Syria’s changes, with the Sunni community increasingly assertive in their demands for justice and amnesty. Hizbullah’s military presence is under threat due to internal and external pressures, while the Christian community faces divisions that complicate their political strategy. The possibility of unrest remains high if the Sunni factions become emboldened by connections with the new Syrian governance. Thus, while the current regime in Syria publicly espouses non-intervention, the long-term implications for Lebanon could be precarious.
Original Source: jcpa.org
