Tensions are escalating in the Horn of Africa due to Somalia’s demands for Ethiopia to annul a port deal with Somaliland, leading to a military pact between Somalia and Egypt. Ethiopia reacts with nationalistic rhetoric, amid fears of historical hostilities reigniting. The contentious port agreement is tied to Ethiopia’s need for Red Sea access, while Somalia seeks regional support amid its claims of sovereignty over Somaliland. The potential for regional instability and proxy conflicts looms, particularly with Egypt’s involvement in the dispute.
Tensions have escalated in the Horn of Africa as Somalia has demanded that Ethiopia annul its controversial port agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region claiming independence from Somalia. The military pact signed on August 14 between Somalia and Egypt has further intensified these tensions, resulting in Egypt supplying military equipment to Somalia, including howitzers and armored vehicles, along with discussions of a potential troop deployment to assist in combatting al-Shabab militants. In response, Ethiopian officials have expressed strong nationalistic sentiments, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asserting that any attempts to invade Ethiopia would be met with fierce resistance. Ethiopian General Birhanu Jula remarked on the historical context of hostilities between Ethiopia and Somalia, warning of potential repeating conflicts. At the core of the turmoil is Prime Minister Abiy’s ambition to secure access to a coastline along the Red Sea, which he has described as a rectification of Ethiopia’s landlocked status. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in January with Somaliland reportedly grants Ethiopia a lease for naval base construction. This agreement has incited threats of war from Somalia, despite Somalia’s lack of access to the complete terms of the agreement. Moreover, Somalia has embarked on a diplomatic campaign to gather support against Ethiopia, signing additional agreements with Türkiye and receiving backing from regional neighbors such as Eritrea and Djibouti. Ethiopia maintains approximately 3,000 troops in Somalia as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission but faces uncertainty regarding the future of its military presence. Somali officials have specified a timeline for Ethiopia to withdraw from the MoU, asserting the negative perception of Ethiopian troops among the local populace. While the military pact with Egypt has been characterized by some as a mere signal of Somalia’s discontent towards Ethiopia, it holds potential implications for Egypt’s longstanding tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations, which have reached a stalemate. Egypt aims to leverage the conflict with Somalia to exert pressure on Ethiopia regarding the GERD, as fears grow over the dam’s environmental and water resource implications for Egypt. Despite heightened tensions, experts assert that while the risk of miscalculation exists, a direct interstate conflict is improbable given the precarious situations faced by both Ethiopia and Egypt in other regional crises. Nevertheless, the conflict’s potential to destabilize the existing security dynamics in the region persists, especially in light of ongoing threats posed by al-Shabab. The political fragility within Somalia further compounds these complexities, with debates surrounding sovereignty and potential fragmentation overshadowing the current military posturing.
The Horn of Africa has been a region marked by historical conflicts and geopolitical tensions, notably involving Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland. The recent port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland has sparked disputes, especially as Somalia considers Somaliland a part of its sovereign territory despite its declared independence. The longstanding rivalry and territorial disputes have roots in past military engagements and complex ethnic dynamics. Additionally, the Ethiopia-Somalia relationship remains strained due to Ethiopia’s military presence in Somalia and ongoing issues relating to regional security, including the fight against militant groups such as al-Shabab. The situation is further complicated by Ethiopia’s aspirations for naval access, while Egypt seeks to influence regional dynamics amidst ongoing disputes over critical resources like the Nile River.
In conclusion, the port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland has emerged as a flashpoint of contention with implications for regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s alliance with Egypt, alongside its diplomatic efforts, aims to counteract Ethiopia’s growing influence. Ethiopian leadership’s resolute posturing reflects concerns over its national security, emphasizing the complexities of the geopolitics in the region. While an outright military confrontation appears unlikely, the potential for miscalculations and proxy conflicts remains, driven by the intertwined interests of regional actors and ongoing threats from militant groups. The unfolding events will undoubtedly shape the future of Ethiopia-Somalia relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Original Source: www.thenewhumanitarian.org
