A surprise offensive by Syrian rebels has led to the recapture of Aleppo, demonstrating the changing dynamics of the Syrian conflict influenced by reduced Russian and Iranian support due to their own international commitments. This shift has allowed rebel groups to exploit the vulnerabilities of government forces, marking a significant alteration in the balance of power.
A recent surprise offensive by Syrian rebel forces has led to the recapture of Aleppo, a city that was previously under government control since 2016. This resurgence of conflict follows developments in two nearby contentious areas, namely the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has redirected Russian military resources, and Israel’s extensive assaults against Iranian proxies in Syria. The sudden vulnerability of Syrian government forces stems largely from the diminished backing from both Russia and Iran, creating an unprecedented opportunity for the rebels, under the banner of the jihadist group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Despite attempts from Russia to curb the rebels’ advance through airstrikes, the offensive has continued unabated, highlighting a significant shift in the military landscape in Syria. Moreover, Iranian forces, previously a formidable element in support of Assad’s regime, have been weakened, further complicating the political and military dynamics in the region.
The Syrian civil war, which has persisted since 2011, reached a significant escalation between 2012 and 2016 during which Aleppo was a focal point of violent confrontations. Following this period, the city was overtaken by government forces allied with Russian air support. The northwest Idlib region has largely remained outside the control of President Bashar al-Assad, being home to a substantial population and various rebel groups. Although a ceasefire was established in 2020, the recent shifts in military support from Russia and Iran have allowed rebel forces to mobilize effectively against government troops, culminating in the rapid acquisition of Aleppo.
The fall of Aleppo to rebel forces marks a critical turning point in the Syrian conflict, underscoring the diminished military effectiveness of Assad’s regime amid the ongoing war dynamics in the region. The incapacity of Russian and Iranian forces to provide adequate support to Assad has led to a sudden shift in power. This event serves as a stark reminder of the unresolved tensions in Syria and the potential for renewed conflict, instigated by opportunistic rebel movements in the face of significant geopolitical distractions affecting their adversaries.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
