Political analyst Bechara Khairallah remarked that optimism regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is misleading, emphasizing that an agreement is unattainable while Hezbollah retains its weapons. He also noted Iran’s fear of a ceasefire facilitating Israeli strikes against its facilities. Khairallah concluded that credible outcomes in peace negotiations are distant, especially prior to the inauguration of President-elect Trump.
Bechara Khairallah, a distinguished political researcher, recently expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of ceasefire initiatives between Israel and Lebanon during an interview with the Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath. He characterized the prevailing optimism surrounding the prospect of an agreement with Israel as artificial, asserting that such attempts create a misleading impression of closeness to a resolution, particularly with the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump approaching.
Khairallah emphasized that any substantial settlement is unlikely before Trump takes office on January 20. He argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to offer outgoing President Joe Biden any diplomatic successes prior to the conclusion of his presidency. He stated, “All of Hochstein’s moves hint at something, but they have no connection to reality.”
A key impediment to reaching an agreement with Lebanon identified by Khairallah is the power of Hezbollah, which possesses both military strength and political influence in the country. He remarked, “In Lebanon, any stable solution requires the disarmament of Hezbollah—something Iran will never agree to.” This, he contended, makes any agreement unattainable as long as Hezbollah maintains its armament.
Khairallah further underscored Iran’s apprehensions regarding a ceasefire, which he indicates could embolden Israel to target Iranian facilities soon after. He clarified, “The Iranians don’t want to see a ceasefire that ends the war because they know it will pave the way for Israeli progress toward those strategic objectives. I am certain that the Iranians are fearful of a ceasefire in Lebanon today.”
In summary, Khairallah articulated that even if discussions towards a settlement were to occur, credible outcomes remain distant. He concluded, “The agreement hoped for in Lebanon is still very far away.”
The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon have persisted for decades, often exacerbated by the influence of militant groups such as Hezbollah, which operates independently within Lebanon’s political landscape. The prospect of a ceasefire or agreement is complicated by multiple factors, including regional power dynamics and the imminent transition of U.S. presidential leadership, which is perceived to influence negotiations. Analysts often express skepticism regarding the viability of peace initiatives, particularly amid shifting political allegiances and military capabilities.
In conclusion, the analysis provided by Bechara Khairallah highlights the complexities and challenges inherent in achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Factors such as Hezbollah’s military autonomy, Iranian interests, and the political landscape in the U.S. all contribute to the perception that an agreement remains unrealistic in the near future. Khairallah’s insights underscore the necessity for a more grounded approach to understanding the geopolitical maneuvers in this multifaceted conflict.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
