The reelection of Donald Trump could benefit Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi by fostering warmer U.S.-Egypt relations free from human rights scrutiny. Trump’s previous relationships with authoritarian leaders suggest potential increases in military aid and trade, reinforcing Egypt’s position in regional politics. Sisi’s quick congratulations reflect his eagerness to capitalize on this shift to strengthen Egypt’s geopolitical stance.
The potential reelection of Donald Trump in the United States emerges as a point of optimism for Egypt and its authoritarian president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Trump’s previous term saw a hands-off approach towards Africa, characterized by scant attention and contentious remarks. However, his return is likely to prompt a revival of trade relations and military aid favorable to Sisi, who stands to benefit from reduced scrutiny over human rights violations. In a striking display of camaraderie, Sisi was quick to extend his congratulations to Trump after the recent election results, anticipating strengthened bilateral ties devoid of the human rights lectures that marked the Biden administration. During Trump’s first term, he openly embraced Sisi as a pivotal ally by labeling him his “favorite dictator,” a title Sisi has proudly received. Egypt, recognized as a significant arms importer, has traditionally acquired a notable portion of its armaments from the United States, a trend likely to continue under Trump. This expanded military cooperation is underscored by Egypt’s strategic mediating role between Israel and Hamas, reinforcing its importance as a U.S. partner despite its authoritarian governance. The U.S. military aid to Egypt remains substantial, with $1.3 billion allocated for the current year calling into question the extent of oversight expected from an incoming Trump administration. Furthermore, Trump’s focus on regional agreements like the Abraham Accords should allow Egypt to assert itself more aggressively in regional geopolitics without facing censure. Sisi’s administration aims to align militarily with entities in the Horn of Africa, enhancing Egypt’s influence while simultaneously exerting pressure on Israel regarding conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, which have direct implications on the Egyptian economy. In summary, Trump’s return to political power could usher in a new era of unchallenged authority for Sisi in Egypt, allowing for uninterrupted military support and insubstantial dialogue on human rights. As regional challenges persist, leaders such as Sisi anticipate a favorable environment to pursue their national interests, presenting a compelling narrative for Egypt’s trajectory should Trump assume leadership once more.
The relationship between Egypt and the United States has often been framed by the conditions set by the sitting U.S. administration, especially regarding human rights issues. A Trump administration is perceived favorably in Cairo, primarily due to his inclination towards authoritarian leaders and a diminished emphasis on governance and human rights in exchange for strategic alliances. Egypt, notably under Sisi’s rule, has faced significant scrutiny over its human rights record, which has at times impeded U.S. foreign aid. Trump’s leadership style has previously suggested a tolerance for disregarding human rights concerns, providing a pathway for regimes like Sisi’s to operate with less external pressure. The future of U.S.-Egypt relations is further underscored by Egypt’s strategic alliances within the region that involve complex geopolitical dynamics, including disputes with Ethiopia and engagements in Sudan, which necessitate strong military and economic partnerships.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s prospective return as president may herald an era of renewed favor for Egypt under Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Their shared affinity for authoritarian governance suggests that U.S. military assistance and trade could flourish without the obstacle of human rights scrutiny. Sisi’s government prepares for a period during which it may solidify its regional ambitions with newfound confidence in its U.S. partnership—a scenario most subsequent administrations may find challenging to reset given historical precedents.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
