China has failed to meet its 2024 carbon intensity target, raising concerns about its commitment to carbon neutrality and global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the country faces significant challenges, including increased electricity demand and reliance on coal. The upcoming emissions targets for 2026 to 2030 will likely shape China’s future sustainability efforts.
China’s recent failure to meet its emissions reduction target has raised alarms regarding its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality, a crucial element in global climate efforts. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, carbon intensity fell by only 3.4 percent in 2024, beneath the official 3.9 percent target set by the government.
This setback highlights China’s struggle to meet a longer-term objective of an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025, as outlined in its latest five-year plan presented by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). President Xi Jinping’s dual targets aim for peak emissions before the decade’s end and carbon neutrality by 2060.
China, as the world’s foremost emitter responsible for approximately 30 percent of global emissions, plays a pivotal role in international climate dynamics. Its emissions targets are essential for maintaining the global temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a standard established by the United Nations to mitigate severe climate consequences.
With 2024 marking a historical precedent of temperature rises above that threshold, the prospects of adhering to it dim. Muyi Yang, a senior analyst from Ember, indicates that while the economy continues to expand, the emissions reduction rate has not kept pace with growth expectations.
China’s heavy reliance on industrial growth as a recovery strategy from the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated energy demands. Official data reveals a notable 5 percent economic growth in 2024, paralleled by a 6.8 percent increase in electricity demand and a 0.8 percent rise in carbon emissions.
Extreme heatwaves have further complicated emission reduction initiatives, detrimentally affecting hydropower production and necessitating reliance on coal power. However, notable strides have been made in renewable energy, with 14.5 percent of energy sourced from wind and solar, and 13.4 percent from hydropower in the previous year, according to Eric Fishman from the Lantau Group.
This growth was significantly underpinned by governmental support emphasizing the need for an “ecological civilization” as per Xi Jinping’s enshrined ideology. Xi’s 2021 directive emphasized the dismantling of high energy consumption, high-emission projects that do not adhere to modern standards.
The country also established its Emissions Trading Scheme, the largest of its kind globally, enabling firms to trade unused emissions allowances. Anika Patel from Carbon Brief notes a shift in China’s manufacturing focus from traditional industries to innovative, cleaner sectors like electric vehicles and renewable technologies.
Anticipation builds as the CCP prepares to announce new emissions targets for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which will influence both public and private sector trajectories. Yao Zhe of Greenpeace cautions that despite potential for peak carbon emissions before 2030, significant structural reforms will be essential for comprehensive decarbonization beyond that point.
In summary, China’s shortfall in emissions reduction targets poses significant challenges not only to its climate strategy but also to global climate goals. While the country is advancing in renewable energy deployment, it must address its heavy reliance on coal and industrial growth. Ensuring timely structural reforms and adhering to new emissions targets will be vital for achieving China’s long-term objectives of carbon neutrality by 2060 and sustaining international climate commitments.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
