China has failed to meet its 2024 carbon emissions target, decreasing carbon intensity by only 3.4% compared to a 3.9% goal. This failure raises concerns about China’s trajectory towards carbon neutrality by 2060, significantly impacting global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, reliance on coal and economic growth challenges hinder emissions reductions, necessitating urgent structural reforms in the energy sector.
The recent failure of China to meet its carbon emissions target has raised significant concerns about its capability to achieve carbon neutrality, which is crucial for global climate efforts. China’s carbon intensity decreased by only 3.4 percent in 2024, falling short of the official goal of 3.9 percent set by the National Bureau of Statistics. Furthermore, the country is not on track to meet its longer-term objective of reducing carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025, as mandated by the Chinese Communist Party in its latest five-year plan.
The commitment of President Xi Jinping includes reaching peak emissions before the decade’s end and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. However, China’s position as the largest polluter, contributing approximately 30 percent of global emissions, juxtaposes its leadership in renewable energy investments. The effectiveness of China’s emissions targets will significantly influence international endeavors to limit global temperature increases to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a standard established by the United Nations.
The challenges are further exacerbated by the record-breaking temperatures experienced in 2024, which marked the first annual breach of the 1.5C threshold. Although carbon intensity is merely one metric, it yields critical insights into China’s decarbonization progress, according to Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember. He noted that even with economic growth, the rate of emissions reduction relative to that growth was not as anticipated.
In 2024, while China’s economy experienced a 5 percent growth, electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent, leading to a corresponding 0.8 percent rise in carbon emissions. The warmer temperatures presented challenges for emission reductions, specifically affecting energy production at hydropower dams, resulting in a reliance on coal power to meet energy shortages.
Despite these challenges, notable advancements in renewable energy have been achieved. Eric Fishman of the Lantau Group reported that wind and solar energy accounted for 14.5 percent of China’s overall energy needs, alongside an additional 13.4 percent from hydropower. Approximately 75 percent of the growth in energy demand was satisfied by renewable sources, a feat equating to Germany’s annual energy consumption.
The growth in renewables has been supported by significant government backing, with initiatives reflecting Xi Jinping’s enshrined ideology of pursuing an “ecological civilization.” In 2021, Xi advocated for the dismantling of high-energy consumption projects that are misaligned with requirements and initiated the world’s largest emissions trading market.
In recent discussions, Xi has encouraged a focus on innovative, high-end manufacturing, transitioning from traditional manufacturing roles toward greener initiatives with products such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Future directions for carbon emissions targets beyond 2026 will be revealed alongside the upcoming five-year plan from the CCP, impacting both public and private sectors sufficiently.
Despite optimism regarding reaching peak carbon before 2030, Yao Zhe from Greenpeace East Asia expressed doubts about China’s long-term transition away from coal. He pointed out that meaningful structural changes in the energy sector are essential and must commence shortly after reaching peak emissions, raising concerns that critical reforms may not take place until after 2035.
In conclusion, China’s failure to meet its emissions target for 2024 presents significant challenges for its climate goals and global climate efforts. The interplay between economic growth, energy demands, and reliance on coal complicates achieving the dual targets set by President Xi Jinping. The progress made in renewable energy demonstrates potential, yet substantial structural changes are essential for sustaining decarbonization. The upcoming targets to be announced in the five-year plan will further shape the direction of China’s climate policies.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
