Ethiopia is facing a severe political crisis marked by ethnic tensions, particularly between the government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and discontent within the Amhara and Oromo regions. Economic instability, including high inflation and unemployment, exacerbates the situation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s foreign policy, particularly regarding access to the sea and a controversial agreement with Somaliland, risks igniting broader regional conflict. The Horn of Africa stands on the brink of further turmoil, necessitating urgent international intervention.
Ethiopia is currently experiencing a profound political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, economic challenges, and increasing instability. The civil war in Tigray, which spanned from 2020 to 2022, left the nation in a state of weariness and uncertainty. Despite the Pretoria peace agreement offering a semblance of tranquility, deep-seated divisions between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continue to persist.
These internal divisions within the TPLF have hindered the pursuit of lasting peace, as factions emerge that either embrace cooperation with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed or vehemently oppose him. Although Abiy has attempted to leverage these divisions to strengthen his political position, this strategy poses significant risks of escalating armed conflict, particularly in the Tigray region, thereby exacerbating the country’s fragile stability.
Compounding matters for Abiy Ahmed is the mounting hostility from the Amhara ethnic group, Ethiopia’s second-largest demographic. During the Tigray conflict, Amhara militias allied with the government, viewing themselves as essential to victory. However, they now feel abandoned as the government disarms their forces and fails to address ongoing land disputes, notably concerning contested regions like Wolkait and Raya.
Since 2023, a new resistance movement has emerged within Amhara, resulting in frequent armed clashes with government forces. The administration’s declaration of a state of emergency and increased military presence has not quelled unrest. Amhara elites accuse Abiy of attempting to impose an Oromo dominance over Ethiopia and neglecting their interests.
Ironically, Abiy Ahmed is also encountering rising dissent in Oromia, his own region, where his administration faces accusations of failing to uphold the aspirations of the Oromo people. Since taking office, public support has waned dramatically, with many Oromos expressing feelings of betrayal. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an armed rebel group, continues to launch guerrilla attacks on government forces, claiming that Abiy’s centralized rule disregards the federal structure.
Moreover, Ethiopia is grappling with an acute economic crisis. Inflation remains high, and job opportunities are scarce, with rising prices for essential goods leaving many families struggling to afford basic necessities. The severe economic insecurity has led some citizens to join armed groups or seek opportunities abroad. The government faces mounting debts to international creditors, necessitating difficult economic reforms to stave off financial disaster.
The precarious blend of ethnic strife, political upheaval, and economic hardship is driving Ethiopia toward an alarming decline, prompting some analysts to characterize the nation as on the brink of failing. Critics attribute this deterioration to Abiy’s mismanagement and broken promises of democratization, peace, and economic success; Abiy has transitioned from a symbol of hope to a controversial leader described as a warlord.
Amidst these crises, Abiy appears to be redirecting focus through an assertive foreign policy, which includes claims for coastal access. Since becoming landlocked after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia relies heavily on Djibouti for trade. Instead of pursuing diplomatic avenues to secure coastal relations, Abiy has utilized Ethiopia’s historical grievances related to access to the sea as a rallying point to galvanize public sentiment.
This pursuit of maritime access is not new; past leaders like Emperor Haile Selassie and dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam employed similar narratives to justify expansive agendas. Abiy’s claims that Ethiopia has a right to the sea overlook the necessity of neighboring states’ consent, leading to increasingly aggressive rhetoric that threatens regional stability.
On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, a region seeking independence from Somalia. This agreement, allowing Ethiopia access to the Red Sea for fifty years, provoked outrage from Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory. Somalia’s threats of counteractions further complicate an already fragile regional equilibrium.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea risk escalating into broader conflict, with Ethiopian troop mobilizations near the Eritrean border raising alarm. The historical animosities between the two nations, exacerbated during the Tigray war when Eritrea supported Ethiopia, have resurfaced, posing potential threats of renewed warfare across the Horn of Africa.
Such a conflict would have far-reaching humanitarian impacts, displacing millions and worsening hunger and poverty. Given existing vulnerabilities, including resource scarcity and fragile political systems in the region, another war could have catastrophic consequences.
The outcome of Abiy Ahmed’s geopolitical strategies remains uncertain, and whether he can achieve his aspirations through diplomacy rather than force is questionable. Without prudent negotiations, the Horn of Africa risks descending into further turmoil, necessitating urgent international intervention to prevent a new major crisis.
In conclusion, Ethiopia’s political landscape is fraught with challenges stemming from deep-seated ethnic tensions, economic instability, and the looming specter of war. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s strategies, aimed at consolidating power and asserting claims for access to the sea, threaten to exacerbate existing conflicts. The fragile equilibrium in the Horn of Africa is precarious, warranting immediate attention from the international community to facilitate diplomatic solutions and avert a humanitarian disaster.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
