Standard Bank predicts Ghana’s GDP will grow by 5.4% in 2025, driven primarily by the mining sector, particularly gold. Jibran Qureishi noted resilience in the economy, despite ongoing challenges in other sectors like manufacturing and agriculture. Managing fiscal policies is crucial for sustained growth, alongside addressing currency depreciation.
Standard Bank forecasts that Ghana’s economy will grow by 5.4% in 2025, demonstrating sustained development. This information was presented by Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group, during a Stanbic Economic Series webinar titled “The Economy Under a New Era.” Mr. Qureishi attributed this optimistic prognosis to several driving factors including the strength of the mining sector, especially gold.
Mr. Qureishi highlighted that Ghana’s GDP growth is showing resilience, with a projected increase of 5.8% year-on-year in 2024, significantly up from 2.9% in 2023. He stated, “This is the fastest growth the economy has achieved since 2021, and we expect this momentum to continue, with growth projected at 5.4% y/y in 2025 and 5.7% y/y in 2026.” He emphasized that the mining sector will remain a crucial component of this growth.
The Head of Research discussed the revival in mining activities across Ghana, specifically in gold production. He pointed out that improvements in underperforming mines and the possible introduction of a lithium facility around 2026/2027 are likely to further enhance economic prospects.
However, challenges persist in non-mineral sectors. Mr. Qureishi pointed out the ongoing difficulties in manufacturing and real estate, as well as negative impacts on agricultural productivity due to adverse weather conditions in Northern Ghana. He remarked, “While mining is thriving, non-mineral sectors continue to face headwinds.”
Despite existing challenges, Mr. Qureishi expressed optimism regarding Ghana’s economic outlook. He stated, “The revival of key mining operations and the potential for higher-than-expected growth in 2026 underline the resilience of Ghana’s economy.” However, he emphasized the necessity to address challenges in the energy sector and resolve fiscal policy imbalances to maintain growth.
In terms of currency performance, Mr. Qureishi predicted a depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, potentially settling at GH¢16.4 to $1. He pointed to structural issues concerning foreign exchange flows, indicating that revenues from mining and cocoa primarily go to the Bank of Ghana rather than the interbank market. He noted, “This reliance on the central bank to manage FX flows underscores the need for prudent economic management.”
In conclusion, Mr. Qureishi highlighted the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability as a foundation for Ghana’s economic prospects moving forward.
In summary, Standard Bank’s projection of a 5.4% GDP growth for Ghana in 2025 underscores the country’s economic resilience, particularly led by the mining sector. While challenges in non-mineral sectors persist, optimism remains due to potential developments in gold mining and new lithium ventures. Addressing issues in fiscal policy and currency management will be essential for sustaining this growth trajectory.
Original Source: www.ghanabusinessnews.com
