The power struggle within Ethiopia’s TPLF poses risks of renewed conflict, particularly with Eritrea. The TPLF’s internal divisions have led to tensions, as factions express discontent with previous peace agreements. This situation threatens to destabilize the region further, with potential implications for neighboring countries, and underscores the urgent need for diplomatic interventions to prevent another war.
The ongoing power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia poses renewed threats of conflict, particularly with Eritrea. Recent tensions escalated when a faction opposing the interim administration seized control of key areas, leading to accusations of collaboration with Eritrean officials aimed at regaining influence. Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim leader, expresses concern that this internal discord may inadvertently act as a catalyst for interstate warfare.
In Ethiopia’s historical context, the TPLF and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki previously once fought against a common adversary. However, the conflict transformed into a territorial and political tussle following Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia. Eritrean forces remain in disputed territories, complicating diplomatic resolutions despite international calls for their withdrawal.
Dissatisfaction among various TPLF factions persists regarding the Pretoria peace agreement, as they believe it marginalized their interests. This dissatisfaction, paired with a shift in loyalty from paramilitary forces, indicates a potential resurgence of hostilities in the region. These dynamics increase the risk of a broader conflict that could involve neighboring countries, escalating instability in the Horn of Africa.
Concerns regarding Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea further heighten tensions. The potential for military engagement between Ethiopian forces and Eritrean troops, supported by the TDF, raises alarms about a possible resurgence of violence akin to the previous civil war that claimed countless lives.
Analysts caution that such escalation may extend beyond Ethiopia, potentially destabilizing the region, with ramifications for Sudan and Chad. The humanitarian crisis following previous conflicts adds further urgency to the need for proactive diplomacy and engagement to avert another devastating war in the region.
The internal rift within the TPLF highlights the fragility of the conflict resolution achieved in 2022, with the potential for renewed hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea looming. Observers stress that this situation, if not addressed promptly, may not only spark a regional crisis but also exacerbate humanitarian conditions in a desperately impacted area. Therefore, continued vigilance and international support are crucial to maintain peace and prevent a further escalation of violence in the region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
