Ethiopia and Eritrea’s relations have oscillated between temporary alliances and conflict, notably post-independence and amidst the 1998 border war. The 2018 peace initiative, though celebrated, lacked transparency and inclusiveness, culminating in renewed tensions and the Tigray conflict. Recent geopolitical shifts amid Eritrean support for rebel groups and Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions heighten concerns of armed clashes, requiring immediate international diplomatic actions to mitigate the crisis in the region.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have a history of tumultuous relations, defined by a brief phase of cooperation that ultimately lacked substantial strategic foundation. Following Eritrea’s independence in 1993, hopes for ongoing collaboration were high, yet they were shattered by the outbreak of a catastrophic border war in 1998, rooted in unresolved political tensions and economic grievances. This conflict resulted in thousands of casualties and strained resources, leading to the Algiers Peace Agreement in 2000, which ultimately failed to establish enduring peace due to Ethiopia’s non-compliance with border rulings.
In July 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea showed signs of reconciliation, marked by renewed diplomatic engagements and a cessation of mutual antagonism. This rapprochement was internationally lauded, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting the optimistic shift in relations. However, it was later revealed that the agreement was highly personalized, lacking transparency and the involvement of critical stakeholders, thereby making it perilous and prone to conflict.
The peace agreement was met with skepticism from the TPLF, which viewed it as a threat against the interests of Tigray. This led to heightened tensions within Ethiopia, which erupted into the Tigray War in November 2020, exacerbating humanitarian crisis and destabilizing both nations. Eritrea’s participation in this conflict stemmed from long-held animosities towards the TPLF and a desire to alleviate its diplomatic isolation.
The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed on November 2, 2022, aimed to halt fighting but faced criticism for excluding significant combatants like Eritrea. Following this, relations soured, and Eritrea’s continued military presence in Tigray indicated a return to hostilities. Reports suggest Asmara is now supporting Amhara rebel groups against the Ethiopian government, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.
Ethiopia’s recent pursuit of maritime access has revived regional tensions. Agreements with Somaliland have stirred unease, leading Somalia to tighten ties with Eritrea, which signals a potential resurgence of hostilities as countries realign their alliances. Additionally, Eritrean restrictions on Ethiopian Airlines have marked a new low in relations, reflecting growing animosity.
Given the fragile security landscape of the Horn of Africa, further escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could destabilize the region. External actors may intervene, motivated by strategic interests. Egypt, facing its disputes with Ethiopia, may bolster Eritrea’s position, while the UAE and Turkey’s engagements complicate intra-regional dynamics. The interplay among these nations risks undermining peace efforts and could ignite further conflicts.
The international community must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these developments. Reopening diplomatic channels and fostering direct dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea will be paramount to reduce tensions and cultivate a climate of trust among the involved parties.
In conclusion, the historical volatility of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to manifest through fluctuating tensions and the risk of renewed conflict. Despite initial hopes following the 2018 peace agreement, significant obstacles remain, including the exclusion of vital stakeholders and enduring animosities, particularly in light of the Tigray War. The evolving geopolitical landscape, characterized by external engagements and renewed animosities, necessitates urgent international intervention and dialogue to avert further escalation. Sustained diplomatic efforts will be essential to foster a lasting peace in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
