A study forecasts that China’s dominance in the rare earth market may decline from 62 percent to 28 percent by 2035, with a further drop to 23 percent by 2040. This decline is attributed to emerging mining operations in Africa, South America, and Australia, signaling significant changes in the industry. Expert researchers from China’s CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy led the study.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths indicates that China’s dominance in the rare earth market is at risk, potentially plummeting from an estimated 62 percent market share to just 28 percent by 2035. This change is attributed to the emergence of new mining sources, particularly in Africa, South America, and Australia, highlighting significant shifts within the industry.
The researchers predict that China’s market share could further decline to 23 percent by 2040, indicating a complete loss of its previously dominant position. The expansion of mining operations in these regions is likely to significantly alter the dynamics of rare earth supply globally.
Moreover, China’s stronghold on heavy rare earths sourced from ion-adsorption clays in southern China faces potential threats from burgeoning projects in Greenland, specifically Kvanefjeld, as well as various initiatives across South America. These developments underscore the transformative changes in the rare earth landscape, which could diminish China’s historical advantage.
The study is led by experts from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy located in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, a major production hub for these vital metals. Their findings indicate the urgent need for the industry to adapt to these emerging challenges.
The study by the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy presents a compelling forecast regarding the potential decline of China’s rare earth dominance. With new mining opportunities emerging in Africa, South America, and Australia, China’s market share is expected to significantly decrease. This shift could fundamentally restructure the global rare earth industry, impacting both supply chains and geopolitical aspects related to these crucial materials.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
