The TPLF’s internal power struggle poses a significant risk of renewed conflict with Eritrea, as factions within compete for power and control. Tigray’s interim leader accused rival factions of colluding with Eritrea, heightening military tensions in the region. Experts warn that an escalation could lead to wider instability affecting neighboring countries.
The recent power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia heightens the risk of conflict with neighboring Eritrea. This struggle escalated as a dissenting faction took control of major facilities in Tigray, prompting accusations against TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, generally seen as aligning with Eritrea to reignite tensions. Getachew Reda, interim leader of Tigray, became concerned about Eritrean intentions, as Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has historically sought to eliminate the TPLF, which he perceives as a threat.
In the context of ongoing tensions, Eritrea’s military presence in contested border regions remains significant, exacerbated by the unresolved consequences of a recent civil war that claimed approximately 600,000 lives. Getachew warned that any invasion attempts by Ethiopia’s military could further destabilize the region, effectively turning Tigray into a battleground amidst feuding factions within the TPLF. This internal discord stems partly from dissatisfaction regarding a 2022 peace deal that some deemed insufficient and obligating their disarmament.
The paramilitary Tigray Defense Forces have recently shifted their support towards Debretsion’s faction, possibly due to an arrangement centered on controlling lucrative illegal gold mining activities. Additionally, Eritrea remains apprehensive about Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s potential military strategies aimed at regaining sea access relinquished in 1993, as discussions with Somalia over a port deal further heighten these concerns. The accumulating military maneuvers amongst Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray suggest the imminent risk of escalation.
Experts Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos cautioned that such a conflict could spill over into Sudan, jeopardizing stability in the Sahel region. As Ethiopia confronts persistent humanitarian crises, including food insecurity due to the disruption of aid, regional leaders continue to monitor the situation closely, with increasing fears that another war may emerge from historical grievances and ongoing military mobilization.
The internal power dynamics within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front raise alarming prospects for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The convergence of military actions, historical animosities, and a fragile peace agreement escalates the threat of regional instability, potentially igniting wider conflicts that could affect neighboring countries. The humanitarian implications of such a conflict remain dire, necessitating urgent attention from international stakeholders to prevent further loss of life and displacement.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
