Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest has intensified political tensions leading up to the May midterm elections. Analysts suggest this situation complicates the rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos political families. Duterte’s allies, including key senatorial candidates, are positioning themselves amid rising scrutiny, while public sentiment remains a crucial factor as candidates gauge the implications of current events.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over alleged crimes against humanity has intensified the political landscape ahead of the May midterm elections. This development occurred shortly before the May 12 polls and following the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte.
The political climate, already competitive due to the rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos families, faces new uncertainties following Duterte’s arrest. Analysts suggest that this situation could invigorate efforts by the Marcos camp to diminish the Duterte political dynasty, which has historically been an ally in Philippine politics.
According to political analyst Jean Franco, the impending elections will see the Dutertes exert every effort to ensure victory. Conversely, the Marcos camp may ramp up their strategies to weaken or eliminate the Duterte influence entirely, fearing potential retaliation from Duterte supporters.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. possesses significant advantages, including access to resources necessary for campaigning. The Dutertes are positioning themselves in Davao City, with former President Duterte seeking the mayoral position, while his sons vie for other key political roles.
In the national arena, Marcos is backing 12 senatorial candidates, with several of Duterte’s allies also running for the Senate to shield Vice President Duterte during her impeachment process. The vice president faces serious accusations, raising further stakes as the elections approach.
Political analysts express concern that the escalating rivalry might result in serious conflict between the factions, particularly as the Dutertes are perceived as potentially retaliating against the Marcos administration if their interests are threatened. Reports indicated a united stance within military branches amid speculation that Duterte’s arrest might have created divisions.
Recent surveys indicate a continued preference for candidates such as Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, both allies of Duterte, who are again seeking reelection. Arguments persist related to the potential implications if an ICC warrant were to be issued against dela Rosa, who has expressed reluctance to surrender.
Candidates in the upcoming elections are closely monitoring public sentiment regarding Duterte’s arrest, attempting to gauge the political climate. Analysts note that candidates outside of Mindanao are particularly cautious as they await more substantial indicators of public reaction.
Public opinion on Duterte’s actions during his presidency has historically been polarized, with prior polls indicating a significant number of citizens supporting the ICC’s investigation into his administration, despite his past popularity.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential elections, analysts remain uncertain about the implications of current events for Sara Duterte’s political future. They highlight the precarious circumstances surrounding her due to her father’s arrest and her upcoming impeachment trial, which could adversely impact her prospects if not navigated carefully.
The political landscape of the Philippines is evolving rapidly following former President Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest, which has heightened tensions ahead of the May midterm elections. With the rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos clans at the forefront, the implications of this event could alter the course of the political dynamics in the country. The potential fallout from Duterte’s arrest and the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte raises critical questions about the future of the Duterte political dynasty and the electoral strategies of both factions as they prepare for the upcoming polls.
Original Source: www.benarnews.org
