Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State faces renewed conflict threats as the ONLF warns of the 2018 peace deal’s potential collapse. Allegations of government violations and ongoing grievances fuel discontent among marginalized Somali communities. The ONLF’s resurgence highlights systemic failures, alongside the need for Ethiopia to address political exclusion and corruption to avert a crisis, emphasizing the importance of restoring the peace agreement and ensuring regional autonomy and resource equity.
The Ethiopian Somali Regional State faces the potential resurgence of armed conflict as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) warns of the possible collapse of the 2018 peace agreement with the federal government. Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi (Maaday) has indicated that the ONLF is contemplating all options, including a return to insurgency due to escalating tensions with the federal authorities, who are accused of violating the agreement and restricting political engagement. This discontent is exacerbated by a region that grapples with neglect, corruption, and violent repression.
Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration, the federal system shows signs of fragility, with conflicts emerging from various non-state militias. The ONLF has expressed concern over worsening conditions for communities in the Somali region, which remain economically marginalized despite holding significant natural resources. Renewed insurgency in the region could further destabilize Ethiopia and inflame tensions across the Horn of Africa, worsening existing humanitarian crises.
Established in 1984, the ONLF arose from historical grievances surrounding the oppression of Somali self-determination and the exploitation of oil and gas reserves in the Ogaden Basin. Its guerrilla campaigns against oppressive federal policies for over three decades aimed to rectify these injustices. Ethiopia’s heavy-handed responses during this period, justified as counterterrorism, resulted in significant human rights abuses, further entrenching animosity within the Somali population.
The 2018 Asmara peace agreement, destined for fragility from the outset, was aimed at integrating ONLF fighters and recognizing their political legitimacy. However, the federal government’s negligence in reintegrating combatants—only 10% had been assimilated—reflects the failure to address deeper systemic grievances. As a result, the ONLF’s core issues of marginalization and self-determination remain unresolved, pushing the group back towards resistance.
The ONLF perceives a regression in Ethiopia’s federalist principles under the Prosperity Party, which has suppressed political space for opposition parties. Criticism of the current Somali administration, led by Mustafa Omar, emphasizes allegations of corruption and economic mismanagement, including the embezzlement of funds initially allocated for critical infrastructure. This reality substantiates longstanding sentiments of internal colonialism amid ongoing impoverishment in resource-rich areas.
The ONLF has observed that the current administration employs strategies to criminalize opposition, reminiscent of previous regimes. Tactics such as restricting political activities, denying permits for public gatherings, and arresting dissenters directly contradict the intentions behind the 2018 peace deal, which aimed to promote political inclusion. Such betrayals of trust have rekindled calls for equitable governance and self-determination within the Somali region.
The intensifying situation has led the Ethiopian government to revert to tactics of coercion and co-optation, similarly witnessed in conflict regions like Tigray and Oromia. Attempts by Mustafa’s administration to instigate a splinter faction within the ONLF have largely failed, as grassroots support for the legitimate ONLF remains robust. As tensions escalate, the government has publicly branded the ONLF as an enemy of the state, prompting a withdrawal from the National Dialogue Commission by the ONLF.
As discontent grows within the Somali region, cities have become focal points for youth-led protests driven by demands for accountability and transparency. The ONLF has capitalized on this momentum to rally both local and transnational support, presenting its cause as part of a broader struggle against oppression. Engaged diaspora communities have played an essential role in amplifying these voices and advocating for change on an international scale.
To avert rising tensions, the federal government must proactively reinforce the 2018 peace agreement rather than making empty promises. Addressing corruption, ensuring accountability, and protecting regional autonomy must be prioritized. The ONLF has distinctly highlighted that the current agreements, particularly concerning resource extraction, lack local input, putting the communities at risk of exploitation.
Although the ONLF’s military capabilities have diminished, the group may employ hybrid tactics that intertwine grassroots mobilization with sporadic guerrilla warfare. Such a strategy aims to erode the government’s legitimacy rather than pursue overt combat. The ONLF’s focus on the narrative of oppression suggests a shift to non-conventional forms of resistance amid a governance vacuum in rural areas.
Ethiopia stands at a decisive moment, where it must rejuvenate the principles of the 2018 peace deal if it is to avoid further conflict. The necessity for reconciliation is paramount, necessitating a reevaluation of centralized governance practices that have deepened ethnic divides. Addressing the grievances of Somali communities is critical not solely for regional stability but also as a fundamental step towards broader national healing. Failure to act decisively could lead to catastrophic consequences mirrored in past conflicts.
The precarious situation in Ethiopia’s Somali region underscores the essential need for addressing marginalized communities’ grievances, specifically through reinforcing the 2018 peace agreement. Without meaningful actions toward political inclusion, autonomy, and resource sharing, the risk of renewed conflict looms. The ONLF’s resurgence exemplifies persistent issues of corruption and systemic mismanagement, necessitating urgent interventions to restore trust and prevent further destabilization. Ethiopia’s future hinges on proactive measures towards reconciliation, highlighting the necessity of dialogue over discord.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
