Severe flooding in February 2025 in Gaborone and southern Botswana resulted in significant loss of life and widespread displacement due to extreme rainfall. Research indicates that climate change has likely intensified this weather phenomenon, though precise quantification remains uncertain. The inadequate urban infrastructure has exacerbated the impacts, prompting calls for improved preparedness and resilience strategies.
In February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced catastrophic flooding due to intense rainfall, leading to the loss of at least 31 lives, including nine in Gaborone. Over 5,000 individuals were displaced, and major infrastructure was disrupted, resulting in complete isolation for some areas. This disaster required emergency responses and highlighted the deficiencies in existing urban drainage systems, which failed to manage the deluge caused by rapid urbanization and climate change.
Research conducted by an international team of scientists aimed to investigate the impact of human-induced climate change on the likelihood and severity of the extreme rainfall events that contributed to this flooding. The focus was on rainfall intensity observed between February 16-20, 2025, particularly in regions with the most severe impacts.
Gaborone often encounters urban flooding due to high-intensity rainfall, especially as its drainage systems have not evolved in accordance with its population growth. Currently, a 5-day heavy rainfall event like that of February 2025 is expected to occur every 10 to 200 years, depending on various data sources. In Gaborone, this event has a return period of approximately 40 years, indicating a 2-3% annual occurrence probability.
Analyses of historical data suggest that the severity of the February 2025 rainfall would have been significantly less likely in cooler climatic conditions. It is estimated that the intensity of such extreme events has increased by about 60% due to the current temperature rise of 1.3 °C. However, the varying projections of climate models regarding future extreme rainfall complicate the understanding of climate change’s exact influence on these events.
Most climate models predict that as global temperatures rise to around 2.6 °C above preindustrial levels, there will be an increase in the magnitude of heavy rainfall events. Thus, while human-induced climate change is believed to have exacerbated the rainfall in southern Botswana, the extent of this impact remains uncertain.
The February flooding’s severe effects were magnified by inadequate urban infrastructure, which has historically struggled even under less extreme conditions. Key facilities, including health clinics, faced serious operational challenges as roads and drainage systems failed under the pressure of the floodwaters. Ongoing initiatives focus on enhancing flood resilience through improved infrastructure and disaster preparedness, highlighting the necessity for comprehensive urban planning strategies that include better drainage systems and early warning mechanisms.
In summary, the catastrophic flooding in Gaborone and its surrounding regions can be attributed to increasing extreme rainfall, driven by both rapid urbanization and climate change. The historical data indicates a troubling trend in flooding intensity, which poses significant risks to urban infrastructure. Therefore, targeted measures to bolster flood resilience and implement effective disaster management strategies are imperative to mitigate future impacts.
Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org
