South Sudan is approaching the brink of all-out war with rising violence between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar’s forces. Recent arrests and accusations of collusion with militias have further strained the fragile 2018 peace agreement. As economic strife deepens and Uganda deploys troops to Juba, fears grow of renewed ethnic conflict and humanitarian disaster.
Recent developments in South Sudan have seen a dangerous escalation of conflict, particularly in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Renewed violence follows increased skirmishes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, raising concerns about a potential return to full-scale civil war. The fragile peace established by the 2018 power-sharing agreement, which ended a five-year civil war resulting in over 400,000 deaths, now hangs in the balance.
The South Sudanese government has accused Machar and his supporters of collaborating with the White Army militia, linked to the Neur ethnic group, following an attack on a military base that resulted in several arrests of Machar’s associates. This incident, as well as intensified military operations, have deepened divisions between the factions, with Machar’s camp claiming that the peace accord has been violated.
On March 4, a significant military confrontation occurred in Nasir, a town on the South Sudan-Ethiopia border, leading to casualties, including the death of Major General Majur Dak during a UN rescue attempt. The violence reflects the rising tensions exacerbated by a cabinet reshuffle made by President Kiir, which was perceived as a tactic to consolidate power within his Dinka ethnic group and undermined the previously agreed power-sharing arrangements.
In response to the escalating violence and political uncertainty, Uganda deployed special forces to Juba to stabilize the situation and support Kiir’s government. While this move aims to deter immediate violence, it raises concerns that Uganda’s involvement may further inflame tensions by appearing to side with Kiir against opposing forces, potentially hindering future peace dialogues.
Economic challenges exacerbated by regional conflict, including battles between Sudan’s armed forces, have further destabilized South Sudan. The depletion of oil revenues due to pipeline disruptions and economic dysfunction has fueled widespread discontent among the populace. A significant influx of Sudanese refugees has overwhelmed resources, while local livelihoods suffer from inflation, particularly in basic goods like bread.
The root causes of the ongoing conflict are intimately tied to the exploitation of ethnic identities by political leaders for personal gain. Kiir’s control over oil revenues has heightened ethnic divisions, particularly between his Dinka-supporting forces and Machar’s Nuer fighters. Efforts at power-sharing have often resulted in further marginalization of Nuer and other groups, perpetuating cycles of violence and instability.
South Sudan faces an imminent threat of renewed civil war as escalating tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar reignite ethnic conflicts and disrupt the fragile peace of 2018. The complex interplay of political maneuvers, economic distress due to regional instability, and ethnic divisions underscores the susceptibility of the nation to violence and humanitarian crises. Without effective interventions addressing these underlying issues, the specter of large-scale conflict looms large.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
