The risk of a new conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea intensifies as military tensions rise, compounded by political fragmentation in Tigray. The historical context of these nations, previous wars, and regional rivalries contribute to a precarious situation that could lead to widespread instability. Immediate diplomatic intervention is vital to prevent chaos and preserve regional peace.
The possibility of a new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms as tensions rise amidst competing military deployments in the region. Following the cessation of hostilities agreement signed in late 2022, the political landscape remains volatile, particularly in Tigray, where the interim administration faces significant challenges as its two-year anniversary approaches. The conflict has already led to devastating casualties, with estimates indicating over 600,000 deaths.
Historically, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) played a critical role in overthrowing Ethiopia’s Derg regime, but their power has waned since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. Struggles for dominance in Tigray among different factions complicate the situation further, raising concerns of a potential coup or internal conflict. The interim administration’s president, Getachew Reda, recently removed several army commanders, heightening fears of instability.
The unfolding chaos, set against a backdrop of regional rivalries, presents a perilous situation that could escalate into war. Ethiopia’s alignment with Gulf states like the UAE adds a complex layer, as Saudi Arabia remains apprehensive regarding Ethiopian military presence along the Red Sea. Furthermore, historical animosities between the TPLF and the Eritrean government continue to fuel mutual distrust, leading to accusations of destabilization and border disputes.
Mobilization of military forces in Ethiopia and Eritrea depicts an imminent threat of conflict, as both nations prepare for potential hostilities. Tsadkhan Gebretensae, a prominent general, emphasized the urgency of the situation, warning about the ease with which countries may resort to war once mobilization occurs.
Conflict in Tigray is unlikely to remain confined to the area. Existing turmoil in Sudan, South Sudan, and neighboring regions exacerbates the risk of a broader humanitarian crisis should war break out. External interests from various global powers further complicate the dynamics, creating an environment where diplomatic norms are increasingly disregarded.
A potential war ignited by the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement could have devastating repercussions throughout northeast Africa, jeopardizing stability in adjacent regions such as Chad and the Sahel. Urgent intervention is necessary to halt the escalating tension, with calls for a collaborative effort by Western and Gulf states alongside the African Union to foster meaningful dialogue.
To prevent calamity, immediate diplomatic engagement is critical. Any lack of action may embolden aggressive territorial expansions and further erode regional security, leading to widespread chaos surpassing the current crises in several nations. The international community must prioritize stabilizing the Red Sea region and prevent an impending crisis that could have global ramifications.
In summary, the risk of a resurgence of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is imminent due to escalating tensions and military mobilization in the region. The danger posed by historical animosities and present-day political fragmentation in Tigray could have catastrophic effects not only within Ethiopia but across northeast Africa. Immediate and decisive diplomatic efforts by international actors are essential to avert a crisis, restore stability, and promote peace in a historically volatile region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
