Pakistan is navigating complex US strategic dynamics under President Trump’s leadership, marked by oscillations in relations characterized by messages of populism and recent improvements with former PM Imran Khan. The US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan complicates Pakistan’s position, especially against the backdrop of strengthening ties with China. India’s relationship with the US presents both opportunities and challenges amidst this evolving geopolitical situation.
In the evolving geopolitical landscape post-Afghanistan, Pakistan faces the challenge of navigating US strategic calculations, particularly under President Donald Trump’s administration. Historically defined by fluctuations in US-Pakistan relations, there are prospects for further turbulence shaped by Trump’s transactional foreign policy approach, which prioritizes immediate agreements over long-term alliances.
The beginning of Trump’s presidency witnessed a drastic decline in US-Pakistan relations, highlighted by the suspension of $1.3 billion in security aid due to Pakistan’s alleged support for militant outfits. Trump’s public criticism of Pakistan for its “lies and deceit” exacerbated tensions. However, relations improved later on, with multiple interactions between Trump and former Pakistani PM Imran Khan, including a White House meeting. Trump described Khan as a “good friend” in 2020, revealing a complex political dynamic rooted in shared populist rhetoric.
Despite these informal relations, Trump’s emphasis on prioritizing other foreign policy objectives left Khan’s position on US influence vulnerable. Notably, as Khan encounters political challenges in Pakistan, this aspect has not emerged as a priority for Trump. Presently, Pakistan’s strengthened ties with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) may complicate its standing with the US, which increasingly views Pakistan through the lens of its competition with Beijing.
Should former PM Sharif fail to align with Trump’s expectations, Pakistan could see diminished humanitarian assistance and diplomatic isolation. Islamabad’s strategy appears to be maintaining a conciliatory stance towards Washington while attempting to bolster its relevance in US foreign policy discussions, particularly amid growing US-India relations.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has removed a critical point of convergence in US-Pakistan relations, making it more challenging for Pakistan to integrate its priorities within Trump’s strategies. Islamabad could attempt to regain attention by highlighting security threats from Afghanistan, emphasizing the danger posed by anti-Pakistan militants utilizing US military equipment.
Pakistan’s past reliance on jihadist networks as tools of foreign policy may resurface, particularly as it seeks to position itself as a key ally against militancy in reference to threats from Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the reduced threat level of transnational factions in Afghanistan limits the potential for these strategies to influence US policy significantly.
For India, the scenario presents a duality of prospects and hurdles. Trump’s preference for individual diplomacy over institutional engagement suggests an ongoing partnership with India in the Indo-Pacific. However, the unpredictability of US-India relations and issues related to trade could foster uncertainties that New Delhi will need to navigate skillfully, especially as US strategies may shift between strengthening India’s partnership and reconsidering engagement with Pakistan.
Pakistan’s foreign policy stands at a crossroads, directly influenced by the complexities of US relations, particularly under President Trump’s administration. Though there exists potential for improved ties with the US, the historical patterns of distrust combined with shifting strategic interests, particularly regarding China and issues in Afghanistan, complicate Pakistan’s security landscape. Furthermore, India’s positioning amid these dynamics underscores the need for nuanced diplomacy in navigating an unpredictable US foreign policy environment.
Original Source: www.newslaundry.com
