Tigray officials warn of a looming conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, potentially igniting a humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa. Following the Tigray civil war, tensions have escalated with military mobilizations on both sides. Analysts express fears that the fragile political climate resembles “dry tinder waiting for a match,” signaling urgent intervention is needed to avert war.
Officials from the Tigray region of Ethiopia have expressed concerns that escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could lead to imminent war, potentially resulting in severe humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa. Following a recent civil war in Tigray that claimed numerous lives, experts are apprehensive that renewed clashes between these two significant African armies would undermine the peace efforts initiated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2019 for this initiative.
The worries stem from a fracture within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which now comprises factions meeting differing allegiances. The TPLF split into an administration faction supportive of the Ethiopian government and a dissenting faction believed to be aligning with Eritrea. The situation intensified as the dissenting group recently took control of the northern town of Adigrat, raising alarms about potential escalations. Tigray’s interim leader, Getachew Reda, has urged the government to assist against the dissident faction, fearing that innocent Tigray citizens could be caught in another conflict.
Amid these developments, Eritrea has mobilized its military, a move observed after heightened tensions, while Ethiopia has reportedly deployed troops closer to the Eritrean border. Analysts have cautioned that the political climate is precarious, with potential for conflict likened to “dry tinder waiting for a match”. This ongoing volatility highlights the deeply rooted animosity and distrust between the two nations, historically marked by wars and ceasefires yet characterized by fragile relations post-2018.
After a prolonged period of enmity, Eritrea and Ethiopia normalized relations under Abiy’s leadership, but recent statements from Abiy advocating for Ethiopia’s rights to sea access have further strained ties. This rhetoric has drawn criticism as Eritrea has recently engaged in a security alliance with Egypt and Somalia, interpreted by many as a strategic counter to Ethiopia’s expanding influence. The situation remains fraught, with diplomatic sources noting the urgency for astute interventions to avert potential conflict.
The current status between Ethiopia and Eritrea presents a grave threat of renewed conflict, primarily driven by internal divisions within Tigray and historical grievances between the two nations. While efforts towards rapprochement were made, recent actions and rhetoric have significantly deteriorated relations. Vigilant monitoring and diplomatic engagement are crucial to prevent a catastrophic humanitarian impact on the already vulnerable populations in the region.
Original Source: www.usnews.com
