Dry weather threatens Brazil’s sugarcane crop leading to mounting concerns over the upcoming 2025/26 harvest. Mixed forecasts depict potential production ranging from 590 to over 630 million tonnes, with many producers anticipating declines due to poor growth conditions. Regions such as Jaú and Ribeirão Preto are particularly affected, impacting yields and overall production efficacy.
Brazil’s sugarcane mills and producers are increasingly worried about the potential impact of ongoing dry weather on the upcoming 2025/26 harvest, which commences in April. The persisting lack of rainfall in February and March in the Center-South, a major sugarcane-producing area, is compounding issues from last year’s drought, leading to escalated concerns regarding crop viability.
Forecasts on sugarcane production are varied, reflecting the inconsistent conditions across plantations. While some analysts project an increase in sugarcane crushing, producers and traders anticipate a notable reduction in output. Consultancy firm Datagro forecasts production at 612 million tonnes, which represents a 1.4% decline compared to the current season, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the harvest.
On the more optimistic end of the spectrum, consultancy Hedgepoint estimates a harvest of 630 million tonnes owing to recent rainfall levels. Carlos Mello, the firm’s head of sugar, stated, “This year, rainfall is close to average, and soil moisture is better,” yet cautioned that unfavorable conditions from March to May could lead to lower yields. In contrast, trading firm Sucden holds a pessimistic view, estimating production between 590 million and 600 million tonnes.
Producers express heightened concern, with José Guilherme Nogueira, president of Orplana, stating, “Today, based on discussions with industry associations, we expect a minimum decline of 15%.” The primary challenges for the sugarcane crop include poor sprouting and inhibited growth, noted Mr. Nogueira. Azael Pizzolato Júnior reported that some ratoon crops failed to regenerate, necessitating replanting efforts, as the current drought also affects intercropped peanuts.
The Jaú region in São Paulo has faced significant rainfall shortages, affecting farmers’ assessments of their fields. Eduardo Romão of the Jaú Sugarcane Growers Association noted that plants intended to reach 70 centimeters were only half that height in mid-January. He anticipates a 25% productivity drop in Jaú, with potential for worse outcomes in regions like Araçatuba and São Carlos.
Several areas including Ribeirão Preto have not observed significant rainfall in over 30 days, leading farmers to predict reduced yields, though Piracicaba and Pirassununga have experienced fewer issues. Datagro’s mapping highlights Ribeirão Preto and Araçatuba as severely affected regions, with precipitation in February falling substantially below average.
Soil water storage levels remain notably high, exceeding 70% in many areas, but the situation a year prior showed even higher water retention. Datagro assesses that the first third of the upcoming harvest will likely suffer from poor sprouting and stunted growth. According to Plínio Nastari, the situation hinges largely on rainfall in April.
In summary, Brazil’s sugarcane sector faces heightened concerns regarding crop yields due to ongoing dry weather conditions. Analysts’ forecasts vary, showcasing a spectrum of optimism and pessimism regarding sugarcane production for the 2025/26 season. The situation is particularly critical across regions suffering from reduced rainfall, with producer expectations indicating significant declines in output, all of which depend largely on forthcoming precipitation.
Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com
