The Horn of Africa stands at the brink of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, primarily over the Tigray region, jeopardizing the fragile peace established by the COHA in 2022. Rising tensions and provocative rhetoric threaten to plunge the region into war. It is crucial for global powers, particularly the U.S. and EU, to intervene diplomatically to prevent further escalation and ensure stability in the area.
The Horn of Africa is at a critical juncture, facing a resurgence of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly concerning the Tigray region, which has already endured substantial turmoil from previous wars. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA), signed on November 3, 2022, between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), had succeeded in halting violence after two years of intense conflict. However, this hard-won peace is increasingly threatened by rising tensions and aggressive rhetoric.
Currently, inflammatory propaganda from Addis Ababa, which portrays the TPLF as an ally of Eritrea, risks undoing the Pretoria Agreement and may lead to a catastrophic war with severe repercussions. For the sake of regional stability, the international community, particularly the United States and the European Union, must intervene decisively to mitigate this dangerous narrative and foster peace.
The COHA marked a significant milestone, achieved amidst Ethiopian military setbacks against the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and mounting pressure from Western nations. However, two years post-agreement, many critical issues remain unresolved, notably the Ethiopian electoral board’s failure to recognize the TPLF as a political entity and the ongoing occupation of Tigrayan territories by Eritrean and Amhara forces.
Compounding these tensions, the Eritrean government, characterized by authoritarianism and longstanding conflicts, is once again signaling its intent to engage militarily. The socioeconomic ramifications of the prior Tigray war, alongside ongoing conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, render it illogical for Ethiopia to instigate another armed confrontation at this juncture. However, fears remain that the Tigray region may become embroiled in renewed violence as tensions escalate.
The aftermath of the Pretoria Agreement saw an increase in hostilities, particularly due to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s alliance with the Fano militias, which aims to dismantle the TPLF’s influence in Tigray. This escalating conflict was further inflamed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assertion of Ethiopia’s need for maritime access, provoking diplomatic tensions with Eritrea, which has allied with Ethiopia’s rivals, such as Egypt.
Following the signing of the Ankara Accord in December 2024, which diminished Ethiopia’s ambitions in Somaliland, the situation deteriorated. Ethiopian state media has stoked nationalist sentiments, calling for claims to Eritrea’s Assab port and suggesting a shift towards confrontation.
Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have significantly worsened, culminating in Eritrea’s closure of its embassy in Ethiopia. Concurrently, Ethiopia has mobilized military resources along the Eritrean border, while Eritrea has summoned previously demobilized soldiers for military training. This escalation is concerning as it could lead to a broader conflict, especially considering Ethiopia’s hostile media narratives regarding the TPLF.
The Ethiopian government’s recent rhetoric mirrors tactics employed before the 2020 Tigray war, using state institutions to keep the TPLF divided and discontented. Abiy Ahmed, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, had initially seemed committed to reconciliation, but current actions suggest a push towards renewed hostility.
Should war break out again in Tigray, the consequences would extend far beyond Ethiopia, potentially destabilizing the entire Horn of Africa. This outcome was witnessed during the last conflict, which resulted in significant humanitarian crises and regional destabilization. Therefore, it is crucial for global powers to not remain passive; urgent diplomatic measures must be taken to de-escalate tensions among Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray to avert another catastrophic war.
In conclusion, the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea threaten to unravel the tenuous peace established by the COHA, particularly impacting the vulnerable Tigray region. The repeated patterns of propaganda and militarization recall pre-war scenarios, posing significant risks to regional stability. To prevent another devastating conflict, urgent action from the international community is essential to foster dialogue and de-escalation efforts. The time for proactive diplomacy is now to avert history from repeating itself in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
