Saudi Arabia is repositioning itself in Lebanon following a ceasefire with Israel, aiming to exert influence through conditions tied to political and financial support. President Joseph Aoun is seeking to mend relations with Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia’s involvement demands limitations on Hezbollah and adherence to international resolutions, raising questions about potential normalization with Israel.
The ceasefire established in November between Israel and Lebanon has catalyzed a new phase in Lebanon’s ongoing political turmoil. Although this war concluded without a definitive victory for either side, the United States and its allies perceived an opportunity to exploit Lebanon’s post-war weaknesses to instigate political changes through diplomatic means. Saudi Arabia has been selected to lead this initiative due to its historical influence in Lebanon and its relationships with prominent Sunni factions.
In anticipation of this new role, Riyadh swiftly adjusted its strategy regarding Lebanon, transitioning oversight from the Royal Court to the Foreign Ministry, spearheaded by Faisal bin Farhan. This shift marks a move towards a more hands-on diplomatic approach, initiating extensive outreach to strengthen connections with Lebanese factions and engage with religious institutions on pivotal political matters, notably Lebanon’s presidential election and government formation.
After a period of disengagement post-2017, when former Prime Minister Saad Hariri was effectively forced to resign, Saudi Arabia is now seeking to mend its relationship with Lebanon. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has notably pursued this by visiting Riyadh, indicating the significance he places on Saudi to Lebanon’s political stability and economic recovery. His discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on reinstating bilateral relations.
However, Saudi Arabia’s reengagement is predicated on stringent conditions. Riyadh now expects concrete actions from Beirut to limit Hezbollah’s influence, demanding adherence to international resolutions, restoration of national authority, and curtailment of Hezbollah’s funding and arms supplies. As such, Lebanon is under the scrutiny of Saudi-American oversight, being assessed on its readiness to align with their strategic objectives.
According to journalist Maysam Rizk, Saudi Arabia and the US consider Lebanon to be “on probation,” keenly observing how its government moderates resistance efforts post-war. Their agenda extends beyond mere disarmament of Hezbollah in certain regions; they aim to diminish Hezbollah’s national influence under the auspices of reform.
With shifting internal dynamics, Saudi Arabia is strategically positioning itself to regain dominance over Lebanon, aiming to use its financial resources to manipulate the local political landscape while cooperating closely with American political strategies. Dr. Fouad Ibrahim, a political analyst, contends that Saudi Arabia seeks to exploit the circumstances created by Israel’s aggression against Lebanon as it perceives it as a critical juncture for weakening the resistance.
As Saudi Arabia seeks to solidify its influence in Lebanon, there is growing concern about whether this strategy includes pressuring Lebanon towards normalization with Israel. While normalization efforts appear to be part of a long-term objective, immediate steps include reinforcing control over Lebanon’s political and financial systems. This has sparked debates about the potential shifts in Lebanon’s Sunni community perceptions and its stances on regional issues.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently planned a second diplomatic mission to Saudi Arabia, hoping to foster better ties and possibly unlock economic opportunities. Despite promising gestures from Riyadh, tangible support remains contingent upon assessments of compliance with its demands, indicating lingering hesitation about full re-engagement with Lebanon.
As Lebanon navigates these complex interactions, it faces critical choices regarding alignment with Saudi ambitions or resistance to external pressures. The choices confronting Lebanon pose significant risks, and the implications of submission or defiance will ultimately influence its stability and future.
In summary, Saudi Arabia’s renewed role in Lebanon is characterized by a stringent approach aimed at influencing political dynamics and limiting Hezbollah’s power. The strategic partnership with the United States seeks to reshape Lebanon’s political landscape through rigorous demands and monitored compliance. As Lebanon grapples with these pressures, it faces a pivotal decision: accept the new order or resist, each carrying substantial risks for the nation’s future.
Original Source: thecradle.co
