The ongoing conflict in South Sudan has escalated between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, leading to high-profile arrests and violence, including the downing of a UN helicopter. Calls for ceasefire and dialogue have emerged from international bodies. The 2018 peace deal is under threat as South Sudan prepares for its first elections in 2026. The situation is complicated by regional tensions linked to the conflict in Sudan.
South Sudan’s neighboring countries and various regional and international organizations have urged its leaders to address an escalating conflict between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. Tensions have intensified following clashes across different regions, prompting the arrest of several high-ranking officials, including ministers and military leaders, in Juba. Reports indicate that Machar’s residence has also been besieged by security forces.
The crisis was exacerbated when a United Nations helicopter, on a rescue mission, was shot down, resulting in the deaths of several military personnel, including a general, which President Kiir described as an “assassination.” The origins of the ongoing conflict, which reignited in February, remain ambiguous, though human rights advocates attribute it to disarmament efforts in Upper Nile, Western Bahr el-Ghazal, and Western Equatoria states.
Moussa Faki, the outgoing Chair of the African Union Commission, has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urged all parties to engage in national dialogue. Since February, fighting has persisted between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and the White Army in Nasir County, Upper Nile State, with allegations linking the White Army to Machar’s political faction, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO). This has resulted in a crackdown in Juba and mass arrests, including that of SSPDF deputy chief Gabriel Duop Lam.
In response to the situation, Major General Lul Ruai Koang, a military spokesperson, has encouraged former opposition officers integrated into the military to return to duty, as many have sought refuge out of fear amid ongoing crackdowns. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement between President Kiir and VP Machar, which reinstated Machar, is in jeopardy with his virtual house arrest and that of senior military associates loyal to him.
Key provisions from the 2018 peace agreement remain unfulfilled, including army integration, the drafting of a new constitution, and electoral preparations. Analysts suggest that recent violence may be correlated with the broader conflict in Sudan, particularly the hostilities between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have disrupted oil flow, compounding South Sudan’s economic difficulties and undermining President Kiir’s authority to maintain stability.
In response to this multifaceted tension, President Kiir recently engaged in discussions with Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, to address security matters affecting both nations. Accusations have flared between Khartoum and Juba, with Sudan criticizing South Sudan for insufficient measures against RSF recruitment while Juba has linked the White Army to both SPLM-IO and the Sudanese Army. South Sudan is set to hold its first elections in December 2026, a significant milestone since its independence.
The recurrence of conflict in South Sudan necessitates urgent action from its leadership and the international community to stabilize the situation. The recent arrests among high-ranking officials and the deterioration of the peace agreement underscore the critical need for dialogue and adherence to ceasefire arrangements. Furthermore, the implications of regional dynamics, particularly the ongoing conflict in Sudan, highlight the interconnected nature of security in South Sudan, signaling that peace remains precarious ahead of the scheduled elections.
Original Source: kenyanwallstreet.com
