Ecuador’s presidential election features incumbent President Daniel Noboa, focusing on tough crime measures amidst economic recession, and challenger Luisa González, who emphasizes social spending and crime control while advocating for a post-oil economy. Both candidates share militaristic approaches to crime but diverge in their economic visions, calling for an expansion of state power.
Ecuador’s upcoming presidential election pits incumbent conservative President Daniel Noboa against progressive challenger Luisa González. Following a previous election in February where neither garnered the requisite 50% of the vote, both candidates received approximately 44%. Noboa, who became president in 2023, stepped in to complete the term of Guillermo Lasso, who resigned amidst legal controversies.
Noboa’s entry into power came during a tumultuous period marked by a dramatic rise in crime, with Ecuador’s murder rate quadrupling between 2018 and 2022. Early in his presidency, Noboa declared a state of emergency in several provinces, allowing military involvement in crime control, including wide-ranging search powers for security forces. Despite an initial reduction in the homicide rate, January 2025 became notably violent, setting a record for homicides, according to InsightCrime.
The economic climate under Noboa has seen a recession primarily due to an energy crisis stemming from droughts that impacted hydropower generation. The resulting blackouts have significantly hampered productivity. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Ecuador’s GDP contracted by 1.5% year-on-year, exacerbating poverty levels. If reelected, Noboa aims to enhance tough crime measures, including constructing a new maximum-security prison and tackling the energy crisis through unspecified economic plans.
Luisa González, who was endorsed by former president Rafael Correa, pledges to adopt a similar stance on crime, focusing on a robust military and police presence while promising to increase social programs. She has emphasized the reinstatement of the Ministry of Justice, which was dismantled in 2018, to improve prison rehabilitation programs. González aims to move Ecuador toward a post-oil economy despite the nation’s heavy reliance on oil. She proposes increasing social spending, reducing sales tax, and providing incentives for women-owned businesses.
Both candidates support the expansion of state power as a crime deterrent, yet their economic approaches diverge significantly. Regardless of the election outcome, the implementation of their policies raises concerns about potential negative impacts on the electorate.
As the elections approach, Ecuadorian voters face a pivotal choice between two contrasting visions for the nation’s future. Both candidates, despite their differing economic strategies, advocate for strong militarized responses to crime and an expansion of state power. Ultimately, the implications of these policy positions could profoundly affect the country’s social and economic landscape regardless of who emerges victorious in the upcoming election.
Original Source: reason.com
