Sudan is grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis due to ongoing civil conflict. The war prompted by the RSF and the SAF has led to significant civilian distress, with approximately 30 million individuals needing urgent aid. External supports from various nations complicate the situation, leaving little hope for immediate resolution or return to democratic governance, with Sudan’s population deeply affected by violence and political instability.
Sudan is facing a severe humanitarian crisis due to its ongoing civil conflict, which has persisted for nearly two years. The United Nations Secretary-General described the situation as one of “staggering scale and brutality,” with approximately 30 million of the 50 million population in dire need of humanitarian assistance. Displacement figures are alarming, with 9 million internally displaced and 3 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
The civil unrest began in 2018-19 when mass protests ousted longstanding autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir, leading to the formation of a civilian-military Sovereignty Council aimed at transitioning toward democracy. However, in October 2021, the military abruptly severed the partnership, appointing General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan as the head and Lt. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as ‘Hemedti’, as his deputy, further complicating the democratic aspirations of the people.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), originally based on the notorious Janjaweed militia, amassed considerable power and resources, growing from 5,000 fighters in 2014 to 100,000 by early 2023. Despite attempts to revive the democratic process through a Political Framework Agreement in December 2022, both leading generals were reluctant to relinquish their significant power.
On April 15, 2023, the RSF attacked army bases nationwide, intensifying conflict. By October, reports indicated that the RSF had gained control of most of Khartoum. The ongoing violence has exacerbated humanitarian suffering, with an estimated 150,000 deaths and 12 million displaced as of June 2024. Food shortages and conflicts, particularly in regions like Darfur, have led to accusations of genocide, further illustrating the brutality faced by civilians.
The international response has been hindered by competing interests. The US has provided $2.3 billion in humanitarian assistance but remains ineffective in restoring peace. The Emirati government has been accused of supporting Dagalo through arms and resources, whereas the SAF has turned to Iran and Russia for military backing.
As the RSF experienced internal struggles and setbacks in early 2025, the SAF increased its offensive, capturing strategic locations in Khartoum and North Kordofan. The civilian population continues to suffer as both sides escalate attacks. The external involvement of foreign nations such as the UAE, Iran, and Russia adds complexity to the conflict trajectory.
Despite military gains by the SAF, the nation remains effectively partitioned, with the RSF controlling considerable territories in Darfur and engaging in collaboration with local militias. In February 2025, both factions acknowledged the fragmentation of Sudan, highlighting a bleak future for the country’s democratic aspirations. The divide continues to hinder prospects for peace, revealing the fragility of Sudan’s journey toward a stable governance system.
Talmiz Ahmad is a recognized authority on these matters, having extensive diplomatic experience in the region and is currently a scholar associated with Symbiosis International University.
The ongoing civil conflict in Sudan has resulted in a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, with millions affected and significant displacement occurring. As various domestic and foreign actors engage and exacerbate the situation, the possibilities for restoring democratic governance appear increasingly dim. With the RSF and SAF entrenching their positions and partitioning the nation, there exists a grave concern for the humanitarian state of the civilian population caught in the crossfire. The international community needs to reevaluate its response mechanisms to aid and support Sudan in navigating these troubling times.
Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com
